BANDON, Ore. -

More than 44 percent of the roughly 3.1 million leases ending next year will be in the ideal wheelhouse for certified pre-owned programs, according to CNW Research.

And it’s expected millions more CPO-worthy off-lease units will follow in coming years, giving an already record-breaking certified sales market ample inventory.

Getting into specifics, CNW believes that 1.38 million of the approximately 3.10 million leases ending in 2014 will be “prime” options for the CPO market.

“With leasing hitting the 30-percent share in December, the next five years will see 14 million off-lease cars and trucks returning if not a single additional lease were written as of today,” said CNW president Art Spinella. “Of those, 6 million would be CPO candidates.”

By term length, the 2014 end-of-term lease numbers break out like this, according to CNW:

•    12-month leases: About 45,900 coming to end-of-term next year, 39,794 of which would be ideal for CPO.

•    24-month leases: 403,787 ending, with 271,748 being CPO-ideal.

•    36-month leases: 1.19 million ending, with 526,883 being CPO-ideal

•    42-month leases: 289,953 ending, with 121,200 CPO-ideal.

•    48-month leases: 880,151 ending, with 333,577 being CPO-ideal

•    60-month leases: 282,635 ending, with 83,660 being CPO-ideal

More on Leasing Growth

The number of leases written has been on an upward track each year since 2009, breaking what had been a three-year downturn, according to data provided by CNW. This year, CNW has the number pegged about halfway between 4 million and 5 million leases originated.

Based on the CNW data, this looks to be the highest total since the early 2000s, and is up significantly from the 2009 trough (when lease originations were in the general neighborhood of 2 million).

Leasing share has also trended positively in recent years, as well. The 2013 penetration is at 27.8 percent, up from 26.2 percent in 2012, 26.4 percent in 2011 and 25.6 percent in 2010.

And nearly 20 percent of households that lease have two or more leases, CNW said. While not as strong as the late 1990s or early 2000s — in 2000, for instance, 26.1 percent of leasing households had more than one lease — this figure has climbed more than 6 percentage points in the last three years.
 

Joe Overby can be reached at joverby@autoremarketing.com. Continue the conversation with Auto Remarketing on both LinkedIn and Twitter.