SANTA MONICA, Calif. -

With close to an additional half-million lease returns expected to flow into the market this year, dealers likely will have a healthier dose of used vehicles on their lots, say analysts with Edmunds.com, who believe that the average price of a used car should drop by hundreds of dollars.

In commentary posted to Edmunds.com, chief economist Lacey Plache and senior analyst Michelle Krebs broke down what they forecast to be the “Auto Industry Trends for 2013.”

The number of lease returners in 2013, they said, will increase by nearly 500,000 from 2012. Not only will this help the new-car market in generating more sales, but the benefits will also trickle down to the used-car market.

“Growth in the new-car market will benefit the used-car market next year as well. The surge of off-lease vehicles and older trade-ins will boost used-car inventories in a range of model years,” the analysts wrote.

“As a result, prices will soften up to $200 to $300 less per vehicle, on average,” they continued. “Of course, weaker used-car prices is one trend that won't help new-car sales, as some buyers on the fence will choose to buy used rather than new.”

Used-Car Implications from Fiscal Cliff Legislation

Of course, one of the big topics likely on the minds of many this week is the Congressional agreement to prevent the “fiscal cliff.”

In light of this deal, officially known as the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, NADA Used Car Guide’s Jonathan Banks discussed the implications for the used-car market in the latest entry to his Used Car & Truck Blog.

Ultimately, he wrote, “The compromise will be enough to prevent an acute decline in used prices, meaning they should remain at a high level by historical standards near-term.”

In fact, NADA’s prior forecast for used-car pricing in the first quarter already had considered a “similar form of fiscal compromise,” Banks said.  So, in other words, used prices this quarter are still on tap to drop 0.4 percent year-over-year.

But, this all comes with a caveat, Banks suggested.

He indicated that “the fallout from the deficit agreement will continue to pose some risk to used-vehicle prices over the coming months.”

Ordinarily, demand spikes in the first quarter as tax rebate checks are doled out, but this could be delayed due to the “last-minute” nature of the agreement, he explained. Since the Internal Revenue Service has changes to put in place per the new law, it may be some time before people can file their tax returns, and thus get a refund.

With demand delayed, Banks said, it “would cause dealers to adjust inventory acquisition timing, which might catch some by surprise since many have become accustomed to building up supply earlier in the quarter over the past few years because the increased use of online filing has put rebate checks into consumer hands faster.”

He continued: “In addition, the U.S. has once again exceeded the debt limit set by Congress in two summers ago.  While the Treasury has emergency power to keep the government running for a few more weeks, the reprieve will only last through early February.    

“Since Congress must act soon to once again extend the debt ceiling, the stage is set for a repeat of the querulous debate that took place less than two years ago that led to a U.S. debt-downgrade, helped tamp down consumer confidence and used-vehicle prices.”