ALG’s Residual Value Analysis for 13 New Models

ALG vice president of editorial Eric Lyman spent the early portion of the New York International Auto Show considering residual values of the new 2015 models nearly a dozen different brands highlighted to open the Big Apple event.

Lyman based his analysis on the residual value of the most current model now in store showrooms while also touching on incentives that might be available for that vehicle, too.

Here are Lyman’s latest thoughts:

Hyundai Sonata

“The launch of the redesigned 2011 Sonata legitimized Hyundai in many people’s minds, with a bold styling statement and impressive features and fuel economy, ” Lyman said. “The midsize sedan segment has heated up since then, with strong redesigns from a variety of competitors. It’s likely that this redesign will be less polarizing, and may have better staying power among the segment leaders.”

Subaru Legacy

“Subaru doubled the annual sales rate of the Legacy with the latest generation, as the nameplate became more mainstream,” Lyman said. “The Subaru brand is growing share while keeping incentives and inventory levels low, which bodes well for the model-year ’15 launch.”

Toyota Camry

“Like Chevy and Honda, Toyota was criticized for an overly conservative redesign in a volume-critical segment, and this refresh is aimed at addressing that issue,” Lyman said. ”With a tepid response to the Corolla launch, Toyota needs a successful refresh to maintain pole position in this even more critical segment.”

Nissan Murano

“The Murano has set the tone for the sporty end of the Midsize Utility segment, but competitors offering more value via lower pricing or more size have gained share,” Lyman said. “With more expressive designs coming out of Nissan recently, like the new Rogue, Nissan hopes the Murano’s redesign will help it regain its sales momentum.”

Acura TLX

“While Acura’s SUV lineup is solid, its sedans have had confusing overlap,” said Eric Lyman, Vice President of Editorial for ALG. “Combining the TL and TSX offerings into one should help Acura to rationalize its lineup and focus more directly on the Premium Midsize leaders like 3 Series and A4.”

BMW X4

“BMW is on a quest to fill every niche it can find, already boasting the largest lineup in the luxury sector,” Lyman said. “The brand is currently focused on filling out its crossover lineup—including announcing a flagship X7. We expect the new X4 to have a nice resale premium over its X3 platform mate, similar to the relationship between the X6 and X5.”

Mercedes-Benz S63 AMG Coupe

“Mercedes is going in the opposite direction as BMW and Audi, paring down its nameplates to better leverage its marketing dollars,” Lyman said. “The S-Class is a highly regarded model, so bringing its flagship coupe under this umbrella should work well, and the new AMG version will have few peers outside the exotic realm.”

Kia Sedona

“The Sedona is one of the few players left in the Minivan segment, but recently its sales have slowed to a trickle,” Lyman said. “With its 2015 redesign, Kia is hoping that the Sedona can ride the brand’s momentum to become more than just the high-value alternative to the dominant players.”

Mazda MX-5 Miata

“Mazda may have the non-lux roadster category to itself, but there always seem to be a few challengers who’d like a shot at these buyers,” Lyman said. “The Miata will continue to sell in low volumes to a distinct group of enthusiasts, but it sets the tone for the rest of the brand to have it in the showroom.”

Dodge Challenger

“Like its Mustang and Camaro competitors, the Challenger faces the difficult task of reworking an iconic retro design,” Lyman said. “But if done right, this refresh, along with special models like the SRT Hellcat, can keep the Challenger’s remarkably buoyant resale value riding high.”

Dodge Charger

“Dodge is eager to keep the Charger, its strongest entry, at the top of its game,” Lyman said. “Resale is still towards the top of the segment, so this full exterior reworking should easily be able to reignite the Charger’s sales momentum.”

Subaru Outback

“The current Outback won three Residual Value Awards in a row after it debuted for 2010, thanks to both the fierce loyalty of Subaru owners who love this unique vehicle and to its expanded mainstream appeal,” Lyman said. “If Subaru continues its balance of rugged reliability with carlike ride, handling and fuel economy, the Outback should be able to increase its following.”

Honda HR-V Concept (Fit-based CUV)

“Subcompact Utility sales continue to increase as new entries hit the market, and drivers love the combination of fuel- and space-efficiency along with higher ground clearance and available AWD,” Lyman said. “Honda can leverage the success of the Fit in this new segment to offer a sportier alternative to vehicles like the Encore and Soul.”

Alfa Romeo Brand

“Alfa Romeo is finally returning to the U.S. market after two decades with the New York debut of the 4C,” Lyman said. “Alfa needs a more accessible lineup than just the extreme 4C, though, and the industry will be watching closely as Fiat outlines the brand’s strategy over the next month or so. Managing expectations will be key, as most consumers are unfamiliar with the Alfa brand. Fiat cannot afford another false start with the launch of an all-new brand as it did with the Fiat 500 in 2011.”