CARY, N.C. -

Look for used-car sales to go slightly north of 40 million units in 2021 after a slower year in 2020.

More specifically, TrueCar is forecasting 40.05 million total used-car sales for this year.

On the new-car side, the company is projecting 16.0 million total sales this year, with 13.9 million of those being retail sales. Those tallies would represent gains of 10% and 9.6%, respectively, TrueCar said.

In 2020, there were 14.6 million total new-car sales, down from 17.0 million in 2019. For retail new-car sales, the tally dipped from 13.8 million to 12.7 million, TrueCar said.

“The year 2020 was a challenging one for the automotive industry and the economy at large, but the recovery came faster than most expected, providing strong momentum and pent-up demand going into 2021,” TrueCar lead industry analyst Nick Woolard said in a news release.

“Retail demand is healthy and will remain the driving force for total vehicle sales in 2021. Fleet sales will also increase, but at a much slower pace, due to the uncertainty surrounding travel,” he said.

In another forecast, the National Automobile Dealers Association is projecting 15.5 million new-car sales this year, up from 14.46 million in 2020.

“The coronavirus pandemic certainly impacted new light-vehicle sales in 2020, not to mention the U.S. economy as a whole,” NADA chief economist Patrick Manzi said in a news release. “Our forecast at the start of 2020 estimated new light-vehicle sales would fall by one to two percent compared to 2019 for a total of 16.8 million units sold, but once COVID hit, we knew this would be a different year than anticipated.”

He later added: ““While the coronavirus was something that no one in the auto industry expected, the industry rallied and adapted to the new state of play. Looking forward, we are optimistic about the continued recovery of the new light-vehicle market.”

Turning back to pre-owned, the recent Cox Automotive Industry Insights 2021 presentation indicated there was an estimated 36.7 million total used-vehicle sales in 2020.

While that’s down from 40 million in 2019, Cox Automotive is projecting used sales to climb to 39.3 million this year and 40.2 million next year, before moving down slightly to 39.8 million in 2023.

Cox Automotive estimated that used-car retail sales (those involving a dealer) fell from 20.8 million in 2019 to 19.5 million last year.

But those used retail numbers are expected to climb to 21.2 million sales this year, 22.1 million in 2022 and 22.4 million in 2023.

In the Jan. 8 presentation, Cox Automotive manager of economic and industry insights Zo Rahim said that, “we have seen a recovery in the retail market; this is especially true of the used-vehicle market. It is important to keep in mind that the total used-vehicle market in the U.S. is two-and-a-half times the size of the new-vehicle market.

“It absolutely dominates the automotive landscape. We have seen the used market improve greatly from the lows back in April.”

The used-car market tends to be less volatile, Rahim said, therefore the pre-owned market declines are not as steep as those in new cars. And they tend to bounce back faster.

While last year showed declines, “we can expect continued recovery in the used-vehicle market as we navigate 2021 and beyond,” Rahim said.

In another metric that could impact both used- and new-car sales, TrueCar pinpointed the average new-car interest rate from 2020 at 4.74% and the average used-car interest rate at 8.47%. Both are likely to remain steady there this year.

“Car shoppers in 2021 can expect interest rates for new and used vehicles to remain at the low levels we saw towards the latter part of 2020 with support from the Federal Reserve,” said Alain Nana-Sinkam, TrueCar’s vice president of strategic initiatives, in a news release. “The Fed is signaling continued support into 2021 as the U.S. economy recovers from the pandemic. The low interest rates are likely to stay at least through the end of the year.”