WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. -

J.D. Power and Associates thinks it’s going to take the unfolding of three consumer-driven scenarios to bring a significant sales upgrade for hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles.

The firm projects combined global sales of these units will total 5.2 million units in 2020, or just 7.3 percent of the 70.9 million passenger vehicles forecasted to be sold worldwide by that year.

For comparison, J.D. Power calculated global HEV and BEV sales in 2010 will likely total 954,500 vehicles, or 2.2 percent of the 44.7 million vehicles projected to be sold through the end of this year.

Analysts recently issued a report titled, “Drive Green 2020: More Hope than Reality.” They consider various factors affecting the future potential for green vehicles in the world’s largest automotive markets. These factors included market trends, regulatory environment, consumer sentiment and technology development in these markets.

According to the report, it will be difficult to convince large numbers of consumers to switch from conventionally powered passenger vehicles to HEVs and BEVs. J.D. Power believes a consumer migration to alternative powertrain technologies will most likely require either one of the following scenarios, or some combination of these scenarios:

—A significant increase in the global price of petroleum-based fuels by 2020.

—A substantial breakthrough in green technologies that would reduce costs and improve consumer confidence.

—A coordinated government policy to encourage consumers to purchase these vehicles.

Based on currently available information, J.D. Power declared none of these scenarios are believed to be likely during the next 10 years.

“While considerable interest exists among governments, media and environmentalists in promoting HEVs and BEVs, consumers will ultimately decide whether these vehicles are commercially successful or not,” explained John Humphrey, senior vice president of automotive operations at J.D. Power.

“Based on our research of consumer attitudes toward these technologies — and barring significant changes to public policy, including tax incentives and higher fuel economy standards — we don’t anticipate a mass migration to green vehicles in the coming decade,” Humphrey continued.

Consumer Sentiment about HEVs and BEVs

J.D. Power contends consumers have a variety of concerns about HEVs and BEVs. The following are some of the leading ones the firm highlighted:

—Dislike of their look/design.

—Worries about the reliability of new technologies.

—Dissatisfaction with overall power and performance.

—Anxiety about driving range.

—Concern about the time needed to recharge battery packs.

Analysts insisted there could be an even more important factor — the personal financial implications of deciding to purchase an alternative-energy vehicle.

J.D. Power concedes many consumers around the world say they are interested in HEVs and BEVs for the expected fuel savings and positive environmental impact they can provide. But the firm also asserted consumer interest declines significantly when they learn of the price premium that comes with purchasing these vehicles.

“Many consumers say they are concerned about the environment, but when they find out how much a green vehicle is going to cost, their altruistic inclination declines considerably,” Humphrey explained.

“For example, among consumers in the U.S. who initially say they are interested in buying a hybrid vehicle, the number declines by some 50 percent when they learn of the extra $5,000, on average, it would cost to acquire the vehicle,” he went on to say.

J.D. Power also shared in this report that the overall cost of ownership for HEVs and BEVs over the life of the vehicle is also not entirely clear to consumers. The report indicated there is still much confusion about how long one would have to own such a vehicle to realize cost savings on fuel, compared with a vehicle powered by a conventional internal combustion engine.

Analysts also think the resale value of HEVs and BEVs, as well as the cost of replacing depleted battery packs, are other financial considerations that weigh heavily on consumers’ minds.

“It is clear from research in the world’s largest automotive markets that buyers of hybrid and electric vehicles occupy a unique demographic niche,” J.D. Power revealed.

“Buyers of HEVs and BEVs are generally older, more highly educated (possessing a postgraduate degree), high-income individuals who have a deep interest in technology, or who like to be among the early adopters of any new technology product,” the firm continued.

“As a result, it is not clear that HEVs and BEVs will appeal to the general population,” J.D. Power added.

Government Regulations of HEVs and BEVs

J.D. Power indicated the governments of the world’s largest vehicle-producing nations have schedules in place for improving fuel economy and reducing exhaust emissions. However, analysts found there is little consensus about the timing or manner in which these objectives are to be achieved.

“Some governments are promoting HEVs, others are focusing on BEVs, and still others are considering additional options,” J.D. Power pointed out.

According to Humphrey, the lack of consistency in regulations across markets is causing global automakers to hedge their options by seeking alliances and technology-sharing agreements.

“The heavy fixed costs associated with developing multiple powertrain options simultaneously are prohibitively expensive,” he explained. “When combined with the projected lower sales volumes of these products, collaboration between auto companies is almost a necessity to control costs and remain competitive.”

J.D. Power noted one unpredictable aspect of the 2020 outlook — how markets would be affected if more stringent and consistent legislation is adopted that supports specific technologies.

The firm reported one country in particular could be adopting these vehicles more quickly than any other nation.

“China has the ability to move quickly, invest heavily in the development of one specific propulsion technology and mandate fuel economy or emissions standards that could favor a particular technology or require a minimum sales penetration level for vehicles with a designated technology,” Humphrey stated.

“Given the size and growth rate of the Chinese auto market, such a coordinated regulatory environment might allow Chinese companies to achieve economies of scale and drive down the cost of alternative-energy vehicles,” he also mentioned.

Vehicle Technology

While HEVs and BEVs might offer an interesting alternative for the future, J.D. Power acknowledged that many of the shortcomings that defined battery-based vehicles 100 years ago likely are still prevalent today. These issues could include limited driving range, extended recharging times, limited support infrastructure and the high cost of battery packs.

Moreover, analysts insist that reducing exhaust emissions was not an important factor in the development of battery-based vehicles 100 years ago. Instead, it has been a significant driver behind the development of BEVs today.

“For many governments, the primary goal of transitioning to alternative powertrains is to reduce exhaust emissions, and it is not clear how much of this can be achieved,” Humphrey conceded.

“We don’t want to replace tailpipe emissions with the emissions of coal- and oil-fired power plants that produce the electricity used by BEVs,” Humphrey interjected. “We have to look at the carbon footprint of the entire energy supply chain.”

Breakdown of Global HEV and BEV Sales by 2020

Of the 5.2 million HEVs and BEVs forecasted to be sold worldwide in 2020, some 3.9 million units are expected to be HEVs, according to J.D. Power. The data came from its global forecast numbers for the third quarter of this year.

J.D. Power noted the leading markets for HEVs are likely to be the United States (1.7 million units), Europe (977,000 units), and Japan (875,000 units). China is expected to sell fewer than 100,000 HEVs in 2020.

Of the 1.3 million BEVs projected to be sold worldwide in 2020, J.D. Power believes sales in Europe will account for 742,000 units; sales in China will account for 332,000 units; and the United States and Japan should each account for sales of approximately 100,000 BEVs in 2020.

J.D. Power’s entire report, “Drive Green 2020: More Hope than Reality,” is available here.