The movement in wholesale vehicle values for July varied from index to index, but in general, prices are down from a year ago, though they remain elevated from pre-pandemic levels.

Starting with Black Book, its Used Vehicle Retention Index came in at 145.0 for July, which was down 1.1% month-over-month and off 15.2% from July 2023. It was 26.5% higher than the final pre-pandemic reading March 2020, however.

“In July, the Black Book Retention Index continued its decline that began in April, driven by greater-than-expected depreciation in wholesale values,” Black Book vice president of analytics Laura Wehunt said in analysis around the index.

“Although auction conversion rates were strong, staying in the high-50-percent range, the retail market saw an increase in days to turn, starting at 45 days at the beginning of the month and rising to 52 days by the end,” Wehunt said.

Meanwhile, Cox Automotive’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index came in at 201.6 for July, which was up 2.8% from June and down 4.8% from a year ago, when adjusting for mix, mileage and seasonality.

The latter “amplified the impact on the month,” Cox said; unadjusted, prices were up 0.6% month-over-month and fell 5.9% year-over-yeear.

“In late June, wholesale value declines slowed, and that trend continued throughout July as we saw values appreciate over the course of the month,” said Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive senior director of economic and industry insights, in a Data Point report.

“The sales conversion rate has been higher for each week in July, and that translated to higher prices overall at the wholesale level for the month,” Robb said. “We are just beginning to see lower lease maturities for the key 3-year-old segment, and that impact will be felt over the rest of this year and into 2025 and 2026. As supply tightens for this key segment for the used vehicle market, we expect to see variances from historical average depreciation rates.”

In his final Kontos Kommentary report, which was released July 31, ADESA chief economist Tom Kontos — who is retiring Aug. 16 — said wholesale prices in June ($14,036) were down 2.0% and fell 7.6% year-over-year but “largely leveled off” last month, coming in at $14,023 the week ending July 21.

And vehicles determined to be “late model” climbed from $24,827 in June to $25,058 the week ending July 21, Kontos said in the report.

Though he was discussing prices and supply on the retail used-car market, this point from Kevin Roberts, director of industry insights and analytics at CarGurus, is perhaps applicable to what’s occurring in wholesale, as well.

“The shortage of younger used vehicles will likely continue to be an issue for years to come due to depressed new sales during the pandemic-induced chip shortage and particularly the decline in leasing in recent years,” Roberts said in analysis around the company’s U.S. July 2024 Intelligence Report.

“One outcome of this shortage is that it could help to stabilize used vehicle prices by keeping late-model vehicle prices higher, which should keep older vehicle prices from declining sharply.”