CARY, N.C. -

Used-vehicle sales this month will likely beat January figures by a double-digit percentage, but slow from a year ago.

That’s according to a forecast released Tuesday by TrueCar, which called for 3.5 million used-vehicle sales for February.

That sum would beat January sales by 12% but fall 4% short of February 2020 numbers, TrueCar said.

In late January, TrueCar was projecting 3.2 million used-car sales for that month, a 1% year-over-year increase and a 10% month-over-month hike. 

In a later analysis, Cox Automotive found that the pre-owned vehicle market didn’t get quite as hot a start to the year as it did in 2020, but did point out some good signs.

There was a 5% year-over-year decline in January’s used-vehicle sales, according to Cox Automotive, which said the total used SAAR was approximately 38.1 million for the month.

That’s on par with the 38 million SAAR in December and softer than the 40.1 million rate in 2020.

That said, January was the strongest the used-car SAAR had been since September when it reached 39 million, Cox data shows. The last five months (starting with January) have shown relative stability, as the used-car SAAR has remained between 37 million and 39 million.

In the certified pre-owned segment of used, a sluggish start has not dimmed Cox Automotive’s outlook sales this year.

According to the company’s analysis of Motor Intelligence data, January’s 201,023 CPO sales marked a 7% year-over-year decline and a 13% month-over-month drop.

But take last month's softening with a grain of salt. The year-ago figure marked a decade-high for January certified sales, and December’s tally was “seasonally strong,” Cox said in the Data Point report from Feb. 12.

What’s more, Cox is projecting there will be 2.8 million CPO sales this year. While that’s subject to change, it would handily beat year-ago figures of 2.6 million and put the industry back to where it was in 2019 — which happened to be the ninth consecutive year of record sales, a streak that ended last year.

“The CPO market has been one of the strongest performing segments within the auto retail market despite the ongoing pandemic,” Cox said in the analysis. “Going into 2021, we expect the market to continue its consistent performance for year-over-year gains.”