CARY, N.C. -

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the Federal Reserve released minutes from its July policy meeting that indicated: “Participants agreed that the path of the economy would depend on the course of the virus, which was seen as highly uncertain.”

According to just-released data from consumer intelligence firm Resonate, a leading provider of consumer data and analytics fueled by artificial intelligence, consumers who indicated a month ago that they were ready to begin resuming certain everyday activities are now wholly reversing their decisions.

That uncertainty potentially could derail the rebound dealerships have been enjoying since the spring when stores could begin retailing vehicles again.

Experian Automotive recapped in a blog post that new- and used-vehicle registrations plummeted 50.8% and 54%, respectively, back in April when compared to the previous year. Experian found the new and used registration declined improved in May with the year-over-year differentials being 33.3% and 32.4% lower, respectively.

In June, Experian found the metric improved even more in June with new registrations being down only 10.6% year-over-year and used registrations actually edging a bit higher compared to the same month last year, ticking up 0.2%.

“It’s difficult to pinpoint the exact reasoning for the gradual return in vehicle sales over the past few months, but we would be remiss not to acknowledge the apparent impact of automaker incentives,” Experian senior director of automotive financial solutions Melinda Zabritski wrote in the blog post, reiterating one of the points she made during a recent episode of the Auto Remarketing Podcast.

The FOMC acknowledged that vehicle purchasing provided some of the evidence for improved consumer spending since businesses began to reopen following stay-at-home mandates. But policymakers are still seeing plenty of examples of business struggling about what to do next.

“In contrast to the sizable rebound in consumer spending, participants saw less improvement in the business sector in recent months, and they noted that their district business contacts continued to report extraordinarily high levels of uncertainty and risks,” the FOMC minutes said. “Several participants relayed examples of some operational difficulties their business contacts were reportedly facing in the current environment. These difficulties included managing disruptions in supply chains, challenges associated with closure and reopening, and elevated employee absenteeism in some cases. Furthermore, some participants noted that small businesses were under significant strain.

“Also, further near-term fiscal support was uncertain,” the minutes continued. “Participants noted that, in light of conditions in the business sector, business investment spending continued to be subdued. Participants generally agreed that actions of consumers and businesses in taking steps to slow the spread of the virus, along with developments in public health, would be critical in ensuring a durable reopening of businesses. In addition, monetary policy and particularly fiscal policy would also play important roles in supporting business activity.”

While the FOMC minutes recapped what policymakers said back in July, Resonate emphasized that its ongoing COVID-19 and emerging issues research and analysis represent a data set that can capture shifting consumer sentiments of in real-time.

Resonate chief executive officer Bryan Gernert explained why that information can be critical for dealerships.

“If you’re using data from February, April or even July to drive your important business and marketing decisions, you’re doomed to fail,” Gernert said in a news release. “If there’s one word that will define the businesses that find success and stability in 2020, it’s agile — agile in how and when you reopen stores, in the types of loyalty offers you present, in modifying experiences to align to consumer sentiment to drive sales. Agile marketing requires you to be data-driven, and you can’t be data-driven if your data is old.

With more than 1,017 attributes drawn from the sixth wave of Resonate’s wide-reaching COVID-19 and emerging issues trend research, highlights of the firm’s latest data collection included:

• The percentage of people worried about the health-related consequences of COVID-19 has increased notably since early June, with 57% now saying they are worried about the health impact of COVID-19 to a large extent.

• 68% of consumers are concerned about the economy to a large extent.

• People who believe the U.S. economy will not return to normal until 2021 or later hit an all-time high in early July at 72.4%.

• 75% of consumers believe life will take seven months or longer to return to normal.

• Grocery stores and pharmacies may start to feel a pinch, as 40.2% of consumers report that they will decrease their in-store visits.

• Even when restrictions are lifted, 32% say they would never attend a crowded activity with thousands of people, such as a concert or sporting event. 38% would never go to a theme park, 31% would never get on an airplane or train, and 54% would never ride mass transit.

• The number of travelers who have pushed their leisure travel into 2021 increased 30% since early June. Now, 65% don't believe leisure travel will return to normal until 2021.

• 62% of people expect to spend the holidays with immediate family only.

• If President Trump wins the election in November, 24.7% of people say they will strongly doubt the accuracy of that outcome, versus 10.5% who say they would strongly doubt the outcome if Joe Biden wins.

• Nearly 90% doubt the trustworthiness of Facebook news and information, 60% believe that the political ads on Facebook are not trustworthy, and 73.4% think Facebook should be responsible for identifying and suppressing false news and information.

“In this sixth wave of Resonate’s comprehensive study, we captured U.S. consumer sentiment as consumers have been tossed about by a dramatic roller coaster of events from pandemics, the fight for racial equality and ensuing political implications,” Gernert said.

“Companies must have the most accurate data to fuel their reopening plans if they want to keep pace with shifting consumer attitudes. To thrive in this environment, businesses need to capture revenue and save costs wherever possible, and that’s where micro-segmentation fueled by hyper-relevant data comes into play,” he went on to say.

Perhaps consolation to consumers as well as dealerships and all types of businesses, policymakers at the Federal Reserve appear to be watching for any details like what Resonate mentioned in an effort to craft future actions.

According to the committee minutes, “Members agreed that they would continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook — including information related to public health — as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and that they would use the committee’s tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.”