Tough sledding continues in the used-car retail market. TrueCar is forecasting an 11% year-over-year decline in pre-owned car sales, with 3 million used cars sold.

That’s off 4% from August.

Granted, the year-over-year drop is slower than what TrueCar had projected in each of the prior two months, when the company forecasted 17% declines in both July and August.

Earlier this month, Cox Automotive had estimated there was around 3.1 million used-car sales in August, marking an 11.4% year-over-year decline.

Going back to the TrueCar forecast, the company is projecting total new-car sales of 1.14 million units for September. Adjusted for selling days, that beats 2021 figures by 13% and is 3% higher than August.

Interest rates on new cars is 5.9% on average, while used-car interest rates is 9%.

“With increasing interest rates, affordability is being tested,” TrueCar industry analyst Zack Krelle said in a news release. “We're seeing consumers faced with the reality that to afford the same vehicle at the same monthly payment as last year, they are forced to increase their down payment, which is creating new affordability challenges.

“We are paying close attention to how the industry will react to these concerns. Perhaps there will be more incentives, longer finance terms, or a combination of these,” Krelle said.