Initial estimates of October’s used-vehicle retail sales show a market where momentum has “faded,” according to Cox Automotive.

In the company’s latest Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index report, Cox said same-store dealership data from Dealertrack indicates used retail sales were 9% softer than September and 13% slower than October 2021 figures.

October also represented the largest gap (32%) from 2019 pre-pandemic figures that the used-car market has seen all year, Cox said.

“Credit transactions heavily influence the same-store data series, and growth in cash purchase activity is likely causing the estimates to decline more than actual market sales,” the company said in the report. “Nevertheless, used sales momentum likely faded in October.”

Though still softer than prior-year numbers, September had showed improvement over August. According to Cox estimates, there was just over 3 million overall used sales that month, up from 2.86 million in August. Used sales at dealerships climbed from 1.51 million in August to 1.58 million in September.

The overall used SAAR for September was estimated at 36 million, compared to 33.3 million in August, according to Cox’s estimates. The used SAAR for sales at dealerships was 19.0 million, up from 17.5 million.

But even in reporting September’s used sales, Cox pointed to indications that the market was slowing.

“Rising interest rates are likely taking potential buyers out of the used-vehicle market. However, limited supply in the new market is likely pushing some of these shoppers into the used market,” Cox Automotive senior economist Charles Chesbrough said in a mid-October Data Point report.

“For the rest of this year, it is expected that sales of used vehicles will face increasing headwinds as rising interest rates lift monthly payments, and new-vehicle inventory continues to recover.”

In a forecast released Oct. 28, TrueCar projected slightly less than 3 million used-car sales for October, a 13% year-over-year decrease and static with the prior month.

Through nine months of the year, there were slightly less than 19.9 million total used-vehicle sales between franchised and independent dealers, according to ADESA US Analytical Services analysis of data from NADA.

That’s down 12.6% from the same period of 2021, and off 3.2% from the first nine months of 2020. Compared to pre-pandemic 2019, used retail sales are down 11.2% through nine months, the ADESA analysis indicates in the latest Kontos Kommentary report from chief economist Tom Kontos.