Beggs: Dealers Focus on Finding Exact Models Needed
In addition to his monthly look at the specialty wholesale market, Black Book’s Ricky Beggs shared how dealers are zeroing in more on specific vehicles they need when going to the lanes.
“From all of the reports and insight we have received, our view is that the used industry is focused on getting the right vehicle, at the right time,” the Black Book vice president and managing editor noted during his weekly video report, “Beggs on the Used Car Market.”
“This might be seen through the solid number of people on the lanes, even though they were not all aggressively bidding on multiple vehicles,” Beggs continued. “This was more prevalent as one dealer who is a buyer and a seller indicated that ‘if there are two bidders, then the vehicle was going to be sold.’
“While there are reports of continued no sales at the auctions,” Beggs went on to say, “the comments questioning, ‘Has lot traffic slowed?’ to another who said, ‘There is no lot traffic,’ followed by ‘if someone does come looking, they do buy.’ It’s all indicated it is a specific market and focused buyer.”
Black Book noted that its editors who physically attended auctions last week found good crowds mingling the lanes but expectations are better for the coming weeks.
“A couple of auctioneers commented that it was the last week of the month and things would be better next week,” Beggs shared.
After describing the auction atmosphere nowadays, Beggs went into the specific numbers Black Book churned out last week.
Turns out, last week’s movements were almost identical to the previous week as Black Book recorded about 15 percent of its adjustments being increases.
Editors determined the only slight difference was within the clean condition values. The average decline ticked up by almost $30 this past week to an average drop of $150 per adjustment.
Black Book said it was a little more active in the number of adjustments each day as editors averaged 1,998 daily versus 1,776 during the previous week.
Turning next to specific segments, Black Book watched all 10 car categories dip a week ago with sporty cars leading the way at a drop of $80. Upper midsize cars decreased the least, ticking $27 lower.
Overall, Black Book indicated cars dropped $48, extending a streak of three weeks in a row when the overall mark was lower than the previous week.
With regard to trucks, editors saw a wide range of movements, ranging from a $78 decline for midsize crossovers to a $33 rise for compact SUVs.
After taking a price hit earlier, Black Book pointed out that overall truck declines have been slowing down for four consecutive weeks. This past week’s truck decline came in at $32.
Furthermore, two truck segments moved higher last week as compact pickups edged $5 higher. Black Book said that hasn’t happened since July 15.
While still declining, two truck segments didn’t drop as much as the average, full-size passenger vans (down $15) and midsize pickups (down $9).
“Within the values to get an accurate market value, make sure to adjust for additional or missing equipment, as well as for low of excessive mileage,” Beggs recommended.
“The mileage charts are revised for the October publications so look them over and make sure your adjustments for mileage are current,” he continued.
“We encourage you to keep applying your best practices with every potential trade, every online auction bid and every physical auction you attend,” Beggs went on to say. “And if you see us on the lanes, let us know how you are seeing the market.”
Black Book’s Broad Look at Specialty Market
Before getting into specific kinds of units, Beggs offered his thoughts on how the entire specialty wholesale market is behaving.
“The final quarter of 2011 has now arrived and as we look back over the past month and the movements in the specialty markets reported within the Black Book products, we are glad to report some pretty solid activity at the auctions overall,” Beggs began.
“And considering the overall level of the economy, I think the trends we are seeing are of reserved enthusiasm and a market that is better than it should be,” he surmised.
“These specialty markets have some greater seasonality adjustments than the traditional auto and light duty truck markets,” he added.
Motorcycles and Powersports Units
Stating motorcycles and powersports products are his personal favorite, Beggs pointed out he’s seeing a return to fairly normal fall market trends after the last couple of months when prices fell dramatically compared to what normally is seen at this time of year.
“Not only are prices moving in the directions you would expect for each segment type, but they are moving in mostly ‘normal’ amounts, not the outsized decreases in value we have seen over the past two months,” Beggs explained.
Black Book indicated pricing for snowmobiles is rising based on the expectation of cooler weather and the approach of winter. Editors found snowmobiles are up 1.7 percent versus last month’s values.
“These will continue to gain in value each month going forward as the weather turns colder month by month,” Beggs projected.
“Last month, I mentioned seeing all of the snowmobiles in the side yards of homes in Traverse City, Mich.,” he recollected. “I’ll bet this month many are getting their annual tune-ups done in order to be ready for the first big snow.
“Get ready to see more snowmobiles being offered at the various powersports auctions. It’s not too early to increase your stock on this segment of the powersports market,” Beggs suggested.
On the flip side, Black Book determined personal watercraft prices are down 3.6 percent, and jet boats are off a little less at 3.1 percent.
“Many of these vehicles are stored for the winter and activity in this segment grinds to a halt for most of the country,” Beggs surmised.
Black Book discovered most motorcycles, including the scooter, cruiser, street bike, and on/off-road segments, have declined between 3.0 and 3.4 percent. Editors acknowledged this drop is a fairly normal amount for these units at this time of year.
“Demand typically lessens for most of these segments beginning in July at the wholesale level and around August at the retail level,” Beggs stated.
“Off road bikes are down a more sizeable 4.9 percent, which is partly a reflection of the extreme conditions many of these bikes are operated under,” he added.
Moving in the other direction, Black Book noticed ATVs are up 0.8 percent, and utility vehicles are up 0.6 percent.
“Each of these segments normally sees increases in demand and pricing at this time of year as farmers and outdoorsman gear up for harvest and hunting seasons. Prices for these two segments can be expected to continue increasing for the next month or so before leveling off during the winter,” Beggs predicted.
Wrapping up this part of his specialty discussion, Beggs shared that auctions are seeing more international buyers purchase significant numbers of these units.
“This has led many dealers to place excess inventory up for sale on consignment,” he mentioned. “This exportation is probably softening the seasonal decline of some units.
“You must also know your local market so as not to let this export value give you a false leading regarding your local market,” Beggs cautioned. “The more in-demand units continue to be the smaller displacement (and therefore less expensive) cruisers, ATVs, and utility vehicles.”
Recreational Vehicles
Like watercraft, Black Book pointed out activity for motor homes and trailers is shifting since fall is in full swing.
“We are starting to see warm weather activities like going to the beach being replaced with roadside signs for pumpkin patches, hayrides and haunted houses,” Beggs noted.
“Most RVers that are not heading to warmer climates for the winter are either starting to winterize their units or planning one last trip before undertaking that process,” he continued. “They may also be using the RV to follow their favorite college football team. This is a great time of year to make sure that all of your customers are buying enough non-toxic antifreeze and the right kind of fuel stabilizer to counteract the awful side effects of ethanol-blended fuels.
“Another opportunity exists to offer a special winterization service and even possible storage for additional revenue through the winter,” Beggs added.
Black Book mentioned fuel prices continue to be either stable or down a bit, depending on what part of the country. As a result, editors’ recent sales data shows wholesale values of motor homes are $803 higher, which works out to be an increase just below 2 percent.
“I think the two are related,” Beggs interjected. “Typically at this time of year we would begin to see prices starting to ease up in anticipation of the winter lull, but motor homes have risen for the past five consecutive months.
“I think that buyers, who had been putting off purchases due to the uncertainty of fuel prices, have started to feel a little more comfortable that the cost of fuel would not turn their new motor home into an expensive lawn ornament,” he continued.
Black Book also noticed towables, including travel trailers, fifth wheels and camping trailers, fell $663 or roughly 6 percent.
“This is completely in line with what we would expect at this time of year,” Beggs stressed.
Black Book intends to upgrade listings and add another model year of units in anticipation of Recreation Vehicle Industry Association’s annual show Nov. 29-Dec. 1 in Louisville, Ky.
“All indicators are for an even larger show this year than last. Hopefully, we will see you there,” Beggs declared.
CPI Collectible Market
Beggs said most collectors are still buzzing about the tremendous sales figures that came out of RM Auction’s event in Monterey, Calif. One unit sold for more than $9.6 million.
“Granted, many of those huge numbers were on ultra expensive cars that the average enthusiast will never even lay eyes on, let alone hope to own,” Beggs acknowledged. “It seems that the more common collectible vehicles seem to follow the same patterns established by their more expensive counterparts.”
As a result, Black Book indicated most vehicle segments increased in value during the past month, including muscle cars and pony cars both at about 1.5 percent higher and full-size American classics at roughly 0.75 percent.
Black Book also mentioned vintage pickups have ticked nearly 2 percent, and vintage exotics — what Beggs said was most representative of what sold at Monterey — is nearly 3 percent higher.
“That is actually a much larger dollar amount than the other segments due to their higher values,” Beggs pointed out.
The Black Book managing editor also touched on Barrett Jackson’s recent sale in Las Vegas.
“When you combine Barrett-Jackson and Las Vegas, you know that you’re going to get a great show,” Beggs insisted. “It seemed to be a very West Coast event with lots of custom cars and hot rods.
“As you know, we don’t report the value of customized vehicles, because there is nothing to compare them to, but we can comment that both interest and sale prices were high across the board,” he continued. “There were several beautiful stock vehicles there as well.”
Two units that caught Beggs’ eye included the 1963 Volkswagen 21-window micro bus that brought $72,000 and the Ram Air III 1970 Trans Am that sold for $48,000.
Also at the Barrett-Jackson event was a 2012 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 that was No. 69 off of the General Motors production line. Beggs said that unit will now find its home with the Rick Hendrick collection and the sale price was donated to the YMCA.
Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks and Commercial Trailers
Black Book emphasized that it’s continuing to put tremendous focus on medium and heavy duty trucks and commercial trailers within the specialty markets.
“We had a couple of meetings with auction representatives and manufacturers on the West and East coasts. The insight gained from these meetings is invaluable,” Beggs recounted.
“More and more auctions and manufacturers as well as the dealers in this market segment are looking at the Black Book values,” he added.
Later this month, Black Book plans to be at the National Trailer Dealers Association event in West Palm Beach, Fla. Editors also hope to get some insight at another truck plant.
Just like trucks, Beggs stressed dealers and owner operators are looking for trailer value on a unit that will do the necessary job, not just a 1- or 2-year-old used unit. Within the trailers, he noted the more popular and volume units are models from 2006.
“The largest increase for a single trailer type, one only has to look at the 100 cubic yard live floor trailer,” Beggs shared. “The demand for this unit has caused an increase of $11,750 year-over-year.
Black Book added the 35-ton low boy and the 53-foot drop-style furniture van are up $3,750 and $3,000, respectively.
Of the 12 types editors report, they mentioned only 53-foot live stock pot trailers decreased in value, only depreciating by $750 for the year.
“We truly appreciate your time and interest while viewing our thoughts on the specialty markets,” Beggs insisted. “We welcome your calls or emails as to how you see these very special markets. And if you spot one of us at the auctions, make sure you shout out to us.”
Beggs’ videos can be viewed here.