GAINESVILLE, Ga. -

In examining used-vehicle valuation movements from the first month of 2011, Black Book’s Ricky Beggs spotted a somewhat surprising trend given the current run-up in fuel costs.

Black Book found that all four of the three-year-old vehicle segments that showed month-over-month value gains — albeit, all increasing less than 1 percent — were truck segments.

Specifically, from Jan. 1 to Feb. 1, full-size pickups climbed 0.82 percent (or $171), compact pickups moved ahead 0.7 percent ($84), compact crossovers jumped 0.87 percent ($121) and full-size SUV values climbed 0.2 percent ($46).

Not only that, but three trucks — Infiniti EX35 (up $1,400), Lexus RX350 (up $1,100) and Toyota Landcruiser ($1,100) — sat atop the list of individual models with the heftiest increases (dollar-wise) from Jan. 1 to Feb. 1.

“With all of the discussions and predictions regarding the price of gasoline at the pump, I think many would be surprised at the vehicles with the strongest increases all coming from utility segments,” Beggs noted.

Overall, the value of three-year-old vehicles was down 0.55 percent (or $114).

Moving along, Beggs noted that luxury brand vehicles showed the largest month-over-month value dips (dollar-wise) as far as individual models. For instance, the Lexus LS600h had the greatest decline (down $1,800).

Values of the Audi S8 dropped $1,300 and there was a $1,250 drop in Mercedes G500 values.

Furthermore, 11 other three-year-old luxury vehicles saw their values decline by at least $1,000, Beggs shared. Interestingly enough, nine of those 11 were imports and two were domestics (one was a full-size SUV, the other a full-size crossover).

On a percentage basis, Beggs pointed out that 25 three-year-old models saw their values drop by at least 3 percent.

“I am often concerned by misleading references to percent change versus dollar change, as illustrated by these two vehicles with a significant difference in percentage change that are almost identical in the dollar change comparison,” Beggs noted, referring to the Suzuki Forenza (down 10 percent, or $600) and the Subaru Outback (down 3.01 percent, or $550).

Conversely, Beggs noted that nine vehicles showed gains of at least 3 percent month-over-month.

Topping that list was the EX35 (up 6.8 percent or $1,400). The RX350 (up 4.6 or $1,100) also showed a notable gain.

“The Infiniti G37 Coupe, at +$700 or a 3.15-percent increase, was the vehicle with the change closest to the 3-percent benchmark level,” Beggs noted. “These are hardly sustainable levels, but are realistic in the used market for this time of the year.”

Continuing on, Beggs also offered analysis of trends spotted in a three-month view of wholesale values in the three-year-old vehicle class. Overall values dipped 3.82 percent, he said. Compact pickups had the best performance out of the 24 segments Black Book tracks, as their values were off 0.5 percent ($66). Next in line was the full-size pickup class, whose values fell 0.8 percent ($174).

Seven segments posted declines greater than 5 percent. These ranged from 5.6 percent (entry cars) to 7 percent (entry sporty cars).

“Of the seven segments declining greater than 5 percent over the last three months, it is interesting to note that all were made up from car type model segments,” Beggs shared.

Next, Beggs provided a breakdown of how the 24 segments performed on a year-over-year basis. Half were down between 12 percent and 18 percent. Beggs noted that “nine segments depreciated 6 percent or less for the past year. Two of the nine actually increased in value, at +1 percent and +3 percent, for the full-size cargo vans and the full-size passenger wagons.”

He continued: “While the largest percentage declines all came from the car models, those nine with the most stability were classified as pickups, vans, or various sizes of truck based SUVs.

“The functionality of these type vehicles continues to draw interest and produce more stability in values, even as gasoline prices are climbing the ladder towards $3 plus per gallon,” Beggs added.

Five-Year-Old Vehicles

Continuing on, Beggs also shared data from the 5-year-old vehicle class.

Six of the 24 segments showed declines between 12 percent and 16 percent. These were all cars, with luxury and near-luxury vehicles dominating the pack.

Beggs noted that “We find in year-over-year value change that all of the segments that declined 6 percent or less (with two going up — full-size pickups and
full-size passenger wagons at +2 percent) had 12 segments in the group. Again, all were made up of truck, van and utility type vehicles.”

As far as three-month trends for the group of vehicles, the overall change was a downward movement of 3.52 percent. Full-size crossovers were the lone segment to show a gain (up 0.6 percent).

Seven of the 24 segments showed declines between 5 percent and 6.9 percent. All of these were car segments. Interestingly enough, though, Beggs pointed out that: “When looking at the dollar change, the premium sporty cars (-5 percent) was the largest at -$1550, almost double the -$805 change of the near luxury car segment (-6.9 percent).”

In the past month, the average overall change was a downward movement of 0.53 percent ($63.10).

Increases were spotted in nine of the 24 segments, eight of which were truck segments. Entry-level cars (up 0.35 percent) were the lone exception.

“The bottom line as we get into the second month of 2011 and a continuation of the ‘tax season market’ is that used cars, truck, vans and utilities continue to be a strong piece of the consumers’ interest,” Beggs pointed out.

“As the economy improves, jobless unemployment levels decrease and consumer confidence improves, we will see new-car sales continue to climb,” he continued.

“With that, a few more used trade-ins will add to the selection for the used car buyer. But don’t be concerned about an oversupply of used pushing used market values down; we are far from being at the at point. Let’s talk about that scenario in maybe three years or so,” Beggs added. “And don’t forget, the almost always solid spring market is just around the corner, as soon as we can get these overpowering snow storms to turn back toward the Arctic Circle.”

Weekly Report from Beggs

Moving on, Black Book also rolled out its regularly weekly Beggs on the Used Car Market report.

Beggs pointed out that last week showed the highest number of wholesale value adjustments (1,718 per day) in more than three months.

Fifty-nine percent of the adjustments were decreases. The average change was a downward adjustment of $28.

On the car side, the overall change was a $14 decrease.

“This was the smallest decline since the week ending May 21, 2010 and compares as much more stable than the -$41 change of the matching week one year ago,” Beggs pointed out.

The values of four car segments were up, with the entry midsize segment topping the list at $24. Compact cars (up $15) followed, with upper midsize cars (up $7) and entry-level cars (climbing $4) rounding out the list.

Prestige luxury cars once again showed the greatest volatility (down $110).

Moving over to trucks, these were up $1 overall. Values of five segments climbed, one remained static and eight dropped.

Compact SUVs (down $36) showed the heftiest decrease.

“The full-size pickups, which had the largest declines of $100 plus the previous two weeks, declined by only $21 this past week,” Beggs noted.

Full-size crossovers showed the most dramatic increases (up $74) followed by the compact crossover segment (up $35).

Offering some overall analysis, Beggs shared: “Just a week I ago returned from the country’s largest dealer convention and exposition. It was a great few days as the atmosphere about the industry was extremely upbeat.

“The interest in new technology was at the forefront and the number of dealers who loaded used-vehicle value applications on their smart phones was tremendous. Most of those downloads included the VINScan solution and in-your-hand access to the Carfax vehicle history report,” he noted.

Beggs went on to share: “Later this week Black Book will be presenting our Motorcycle and Powersports data solutions at the Dealer Expo in Indianapolis. This dealer show matches the attendance level of the recent NADA convention. If you are near Indianapolis, stop by booth No. 5138 for a test drive of the motorcycle and powersports values and tools.”