Beggs: Wholesale Adjustments Approach 12-Month High
There has only been one week in the past year where Black Book has made more wholesale value adjustments per day than it did last week, managing editor Ricky Beggs said in his latest report released Monday.
Specifically, there were close to 2,100 changes in wholesale pricing made each day last week, according to the latest “Beggs on the Used Car Market” video report. The only week besting this sum in the past year was the week ending April 8.
The per-day adjustment that week was more than 2,200, Beggs shared.
“The marketplace is extremely busy with interest and demand for used vehicles at almost record levels,” he noted.
Furthermore, close to half the adjustments were positive ones, following a week where less than a third of the changes were upward movements.
“The percentage of adjustments being increases in values turned back to a more positive trend this week, almost reaching the 50 percent level, after a very anemic 29 percent the previous week,” Beggs said in the report.
“Many dealers commented throughout the week that their retail lots were fairly full and with the strong prices, they are trying to avoid getting too heavy of an inventory,” he continued. “This might be supporting the high, but leveling-off somewhat, in the prices.”
Moving on to break the week down by segment, Beggs called the car segment the “stars of the show.”
Nine of the 10 segments climbed in value and the overall change for cars was a $45 increase, Beggs shared. This marked the 11th straight week that overall car values have climbed.
Leading the way were entry-level cars, whose values jumped $158 from the previous week. No other segment type has seen that high of a week-over-week increase this year.
“Since the first of the year the entry-level car segment as a whole has increased $1,017,” Beggs pointed out. “Looking at the entry-level cars that were three years old last year at this time and the model year that is three years old today, that increase in value is up by 28.99 percent, or almost $1,900.”
Overshadowed a bit in these days of car value escalation has been the truck side of the market. During the past week, truck values dipped $20, overall.
However, there were only two other times in the last 10 weeks that truck values have decreased, Beggs emphasized.
“As I said during a presentation this past week to a very progressive group of independent leasing companies and vendors at the annual NVLA Conference in Chicago, if the cars weren’t so strong, we would be talking about the solid retention levels of the trucks, vans and utility models,” he stressed.
Of the 14 truck segments that Black Book tracks, four showed gains in value during the last week.
Compact SUVs had the largest increase (up $31) followed by compact crossovers (up $28).
Full-size crossovers were up $9, ending a four-week string of negative changes. Lastly, midsize pickups climbed $6.
Conversely, the biggest drop-offs were all found in full-size segments. Full-size pickups had the heaviest decline (down $92), marking the fifth straight week they have had this distinction.
Full-size SUVs were next in line with a downward movement of $91. In each week of the last three months, there has been a dip in full-size SUV values, Beggs pointed out.
The full-size cargo segment was off $44 and passenger wagons dipped $51. Last week marked the first time in nine weeks that either of these have softened, according to Beggs.
Moving along, Beggs also shared more some overall industry analysis, boiling it down to five key points.
“We are still watching the new-vehicle inventory levels, especially those most significantly affected by the March 11 Japan earthquake,” Beggs began, before delving into the impact from the disasters that have struck the U.S.
“If the already limited supply of used inventory wasn’t pushing values even higher, the recent tornados throughout the Southeast and now the devastating flooding around the Mississippi River and even into parts of Virginia, will create the need for more replacement new and used cars,” he continued.
Beggs talked further about volume in his third key point, noting: “Auctions are struggling to get the volume of cars and trucks to run and in some cases are off by close to 40 percent from year-ago levels.”
Continuing on, he shared his perspective about what he believes is a “major sales push” on the horizon.
“With Memorial Day only a couple of weeks away, there are already signs of a major sales push by a few manufacturers with some bumped up incentive programs, even though the days supply is well below desired levels for new and used markets,” Beggs commented.
Finally, Beggs talked a bit about a Black Book social media effort.
“Our tweets on @beggsblackbook the past week or so have been focused on the daily adjustments and the major amounts of the changes. We hope they have been insightful,” he noted. “This is one more way of telling you in a timely manner what we are seeing in the market.”
Beggs’ videos can be seen here.