Beggs: Wholesale Market Becoming More Consistent
Sharing what Black Book editors observed for themselves in the lanes or what the commentary survey personnel reported back to the home office, Ricky Beggs indicated that dealer sentiment is becoming more consistent about how wholesale conditions are nowadays.
In his latest video blog, “Beggs on the Used Car Market,” the Black Book managing editor described how the firm handled its information-gathering processes after Memorial Day weekend.
“What a week we just had, as we took a little time to honor our military friends and then had to dig a little deeper to make sure we were reporting the complete market,” Beggs began. “The editorial team stepped up this past week with focused analysis after each one attended at least one physical auction and watching several more online.
“As we received the reports from our survey personnel all across the country there were many comments similar to the previous few weeks,” he continued. “It is consistent that the market is still not overly aggressive in trying to buy additional or fresh inventory.
“It’s also clear that much of what is available on the dealer consigned lanes could be from slightly aged inventory that was previously acquired when we were at or near the peak of the market, thus leading to a few more no sales this week or maybe even a winkled brow if it did sell,” Beggs went on to say. “It doesn’t hurt too long, but as we overheard one dealer say, he at least turned his offerings into cash. That’s the beauty of the auction industry.”
Beyond the dealer commentary, Black Book found that its wholesale price data is shedding light on a market that’s becoming more consistent, too.
Editors determined the number of necessary adjustments that were increases remained in the low 30-percent level for the third consecutive week. That stretch comes after an 11-week run where Black Book’s increasing adjustments fell between 42 percent and 69 percent.
And the average change for those positive adjustments — $78 to be exact — turned out to be the lowest increasing figure since the week ending Nov. 18.
“This represents another sign of a slightly softening market,” Beggs pointed out.
“Over the past week or so I have talked with quite a few automotive journalists, all asking about the softening of the market and the reasons behind this changing trend,” he continued. “It seems that the price of gas and diesel at the pump always came up in these conversations.”
Black Book noted gas ticked another 4.5 cents lower last week to an average of $3.67 per gallon, what the firm said is the lowest level since Feb. 20. Beggs contends the cost at the pump is why prices within all 10 car segments have now softened for three weeks in a row.
Last week, car prices dipped by an average $31 or 0.2 percent — a figure editors said was consistent with the previous two weeks. The four segments with the greatest percent decline for the week at 0.6 percent and 0.5 percent were also the most fuel-efficient models overall.
Looking over at trucks, the prices for these units dropped by same amount on average for the second straight week. On average, Black Book determined trucks dipped by $29.
Prices for only one truck segment climbed week-over-week, compact SUVs, which rose by $9. Black Book noted this is the only truck segment that has increased each of the past three weeks.
“When looking within this segment, it is small in the volume of vehicles and is primarily driven by the Jeep Wrangler and Nissan Xterra, which have both been pretty solid performers recently,” Beggs indicated.
Beggs wrapped up his latest commentary by asking, “What’s around the corner in the market?”
In response, Beggs said, “We feel there will continue to be a slight softening in the market due to a few more units in the market from the new car trade-ins and the need to adjust to make room for another model year of vehicles, the 2013s, not far from hitting the franchised dealers’ lots.
“When looking at this time of the year in 2011 and the adjustment patterns, maybe the market just began the changes just a little earlier in 2012,” he projected.
“We hope you have a very active and great week and look forward to seeing you on the auction lanes,” Beggs concluded.
Beggs’ video can be viewed below.