RICHMOND HILL, Ontario -

Amid what he called a “tough” and “worrisome” September that perpetuated the topsy-turvy Canadian new-vehicle sales, one of the bright spots pointed out once again by analyst Dennis DesRosiers, was Chrysler.

The previously embattled Big 3 company has an outside shot — albeit slim — at bumping General Motors from the No. 2 spot for full-year sales in Canada, DesRosiers claims.

“Within the full-line OEMs, Chrysler remains one of the strongest players in Canada and indeed was No. 2 in the market in September ahead of General Motors,” he said.

“It is actually possible for Chrysler to catch GM by the end of the year and emerge as the No. 2 OEM on a full-year basis in Canada. GM still held that position at the end of September,” DesRosiers continued. “We don’t think it will happen, but who would have ever thought that GM could be in third place in any market just a few years ago?”

Chrysler improved 19.3 percent year-over-year in September as it moved 19,135 units, while its year-to-date sales have reached 182,026 vehicles, a 14.1-percent jump, according to the data provided by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants and two Canadian OEM associations.

Overall, new-vehicle sales for Canada came in at 134,544 vehicles, down 0.4 percent year-over-year. Through the first nine months of the year, there have been 1.22 million new-vehicle sales, up 1.5 percent from the same period of 2010.

Sharing more about Chrysler,  the data indicates the Detroit automaker is commanding a 14.9-percent market share for year-to-date sales, compared to industry leader Ford at 17.9 percent and second-place GM at 15.3 percent.

GM, meanwhile, saw its sales fall 6.1 percent at 16,799 units for September. The automaker is down 0.8 percent year-to-date with 187,040 sales.

“GM’s market share in September was only 12.5 percent which is the lowest share for any month in decades and possibly back to the turn of the 19th century,” DesRosiers said, adding that the automaker’s year-to-date market share “is identical to their market share in 2008 before their restructuring.

“At the time GM talked about gaining market share in their core brands — Chevrolet, GMC, Buick and Cadillac— as they dropped all their other brands. The theory at the time was that by dropping non-core brands they could do a better job with their core brands and pick up share," he continued. "This has not happened, at least not yet.”

Of course, GM was not alone in seeing a decrease for September. Other automakers saw much more pronounced declines, particularly some of the Japanese OEMs.

There was a 22.4-percent dip for the Honda brand, and Suzuki fell 49.6 percent. Sales for the Nissan brand dipped 18.3 percent, while Mazda softened 15.1 percent and Subaru dropped 9.7 percent.

Other Japanese brands saw more moderate decreases, including Toyota falling 5.2 percent, Lexus off 4.9 percent and Infiniti down 3.1 percent. Meanwhile, two showed increases, including Mitsubishi up 26.2 percent and Acura up 12.4 percent.

“The Japanese continued to struggle in September with sales for the month versus year ago down across most OEMs,” DesRosiers shared. “With most of these Japanese OEMs the poor performance reflects their year-to-date performance, as well.

“In other words, this is not a one month exception to the rest of the year,” he added. “Only Mitsubishi and Nissan are up on the year to date. All other Japanese brands are down.”

Looking at the sales data provided by DesRosiers in further detail, the greatest year-over-year increase in September was found at Volkswagen, where sales jumped 41.3 percent to 4,630 units. Kia was the second-highest climber (up 34.6 percent), followed by Audi (up 26.5 percent).

Commenting more on the overall industry, DesRosiers said of September: “A tough month and a worrisome month for the industry, as the market just refuses to grow … this continues the volatility in the market that has been a hallmark for the industry all year: up a month, down a month, up a month, down a month, etc.”

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate for new-vehicle sales climbed modestly to 1.59 million, compared to the 1.57 million level the previous month. While this was an uptick, the SAAR was “still weak compared to historical standards,” DesRosiers indicated.

“The Canadian market has been flat-lining all year, and September was no different. This is good in that it is not declining like in the U.S. the last two quarters,” he said.

“No growth is better than negative growth, but it does indicate that there are still deep-rooted problems in the Canadian market, and therefore, Canada is still a long ways away from a healthy growth market,” he concluded.