Consumer Reports: Americans’ Economic Difficulties Declining, But Stress Remains High
In what could be an encouraging sign for dealers looking for sales traction, the October Consumer Reports Index shows some positive developments on several consumer fronts, including an improved retail picture, modest gains in employment and fewer Americans having economic difficulties.
To come to that overall picture, Consumer Reports broke down the various components of its index. The overall measurement comprises five key indices: the Sentiment Index, the Trouble Tracker Index, the Stress Index, the Retail Index and the Employment Index.
Officials revealed the Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index declined for the fourth straight month and now stands at 50.5 This is down from 53.7 in the prior month and down from its recent high of 63.5 in June.
The reason why this reading declined stems from several factors. Officials found that consumers unable to afford medical care or medications dropped to 12.7 percent from 13.6 percent in September. They also noted a drop in the proportion of Americans who missed a payment on a major bill. This dipped to 8.7 percent in October from 9.3 percent in the prior month.
Consumer Reports also determined in the past 30 days that 3 percent of respondents reported that they have missed a payment on their mortgage, up from 2.4 percent in September.
Turning next to a look at who has a job, the Consumer Reports Employment Index moved up slightly in October to 49.5 from 49.1 in September.
Officials believe overall labor force activity is modest with fewer Americans claiming to have started a new job in the past 30 days (5.7 percent), than those that lost their job (6.7 percent). They determined the October percentage of job losses stands at 6.7 percent, leaving it largely unchanged from the prior month reading of 6.9 percent.
The company also said job gains are up slightly to 5.7 percent from September’s mark of 5 percent.
“The employment index remains in negative territory with job losses outpacing gains,” officials noted.
Moving along, the Consumer Reports Past 30-Day Retail Index for October came in at 9.9, which was par with the prior month (9.8), but down from a year ago (10.4). Officials determined there was a slight increase in consumer purchasing for personal electronics (23.2 percent, up 1.8 percentage points), and small appliances (18.5 percent, up 1.9 percentage points).
The Consumer Reports Next 30-Day Retail Index now stands at 7.4, down from the prior month (7.6), capping three months of declines since July when the reading was 8.5. Small appliances posted a slight gain in October to 11.5 from the prior month’s figure of 10.6.
Despite improvements, Consumer Reports contends confidence remains low and stress is up. The Consumer Reports Consumer Sentiment Index is currently at 44.8.
Meanwhile, officials noted sentiment has doggedly refused to enter positive territory, which is above 50 on their scale. This factor was first measured by the Consumer Reports Index on Oct. 5, 2008, and stood at 45.3.
Furthermore, the Consumer Reports Stress Index climbed this month to 63.2 from 60.1 in the prior month. It is at its highest level since April when the stress reading hit 63.8.
“Americans appear to be experiencing less financial woes, but the key factor continuing to depress consumers is weak employment growth,” explained Ed Farrell, a director of the Consumer Reports National Research Center.
“The lack of real improvement on the jobs front will dampen any meaningful improvement in economic activity,” Farrell added.
Consumer Reports shared more key findings contained within its latest index report:
Sentiment Index
The Consumer Reports Sentiment Index has changed little since October 2009 and now stands at 44.8, almost unchanged from the September reading of 44.1.
Officials contend the most optimistic consumers are between the ages of 18 and 34 (54.3), and those with household incomes of $100,000 or more (51.2). The most pessimistic consumers are between the ages of 35-64 (41.9) and 65 or older (37.2), and those with household incomes under $50,000 (40.9).
The Consumer Reports Sentiment Index captures respondents’ attitudes regarding their financial situation, asking them if they are feeling better or worse off than a year ago. When the index is greater than 50, more consumers are feeling positive about their situation. When it is below 50, more consumers are feeling worse. The Sentiment Index can vary from a high of 100 to a low of zero.
Trouble Tracker Index
The Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index showed further improvement in October, pointing to fewer troubles for consumers, dropping to 50.5 from 53.7 in September. Officials added the mark is down substantially from one year ago when it was 65.5.
Officials mentioned the leading problems faced by consumers include:
—Unable to afford medical bills or medications: 12.7 percent.
—Missed payment on a major bill but not mortgage: 8.7 percent.
—Credit card increased rates/fees or reduced credit line: 7.6 percent.
Meanwhile, Consumer Reports found lower-income households, earning less than $50,000 a year, have been disproportionately affected. In the past 30 days, officials found:
—Unable to afford medical bills or medications: 20.6 percent.
—Missed payment on a major bill but not mortgage: 14.4 percent.
—Credit card increased rates/fees or reduced credit line: 10.1 percent.
The Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker focuses on both the proportion of consumers that have faced difficulties as well as the number of negative events they have encountered. Officials calculate the reading as the proportion of consumers that have experienced at least one of the negative events comprising the index multiplied by the average number of events encountered.
Stress Index
Officials reiterated that stress has steadily increased over the past two months, and now stands at its highest level since April.
The Consumer Reports Stress Index captures attitudes regarding the amount of stress consumers feel compared to a year ago. It asks whether they are feeling more stressed or less stressed.
When the Stress Index is more than 50, consumers are feeling more stress and when it is below 50 they are feeling less stress compared to a year ago. The index can vary from 100 (total stress) to a low of zero (no stress).
Employment Index
Officials think Americans earning below $50,000 have been hit the hardest as losses continue to outnumber gains in this job market.
The Consumer Reports Employment Index examines the change in employment of those that reported starting a new job versus those that have lost their job or were laid off in the past 30 days.
An index below 50 indicates more jobs were lost than gained, while a score more than 50 indicates more jobs were gained than lost in the past 30-days.
Report Background
Officials reiterated the Consumer Reports Index is a monthly telephone and cell phone poll of a nationally representative probability sample of American adults.
A total of 1,265 interviews were completed (1,014 telephone and 251 cell phone) among adults age 18 and older. The interviewing took place between Sept. 30 and Oct. 3.
The complete index report, methodology, and tabular information are available here.