RICHMOND HILL, Ontario -

Ontario was still the leader in Canada and the U.S. for vehicle production at the end of October, but that is in danger of changing, according to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants.

The current No. 2 jurisdiction, Michigan, has significantly closed the gap on Ontario when it comes to year-to-date production and could take the lead. If it does, it would mark the first time that Michigan has built more cars then Ontario in eight years.

Ontario has produced 1.78 million units year-to-date through October, according to DesRosiers, marking a 1-percent gain over the same period of 2010.

Meanwhile, Michigan has upped its production 20 percent in the first 10 months of 2011 and now trails Ontario by only 150,000 units. The Midwestern American state has built 1.62 million units this year, compared to 1.35 million in the year-ago period.

So what has caused the production lead dwindling for this Canadian province?

“Ontario’s auto assembly sector has been hampered this year by production slowdowns and stoppages at Japanese-nameplate plants related to ongoing supply issues stemming from the March 2011 tsunami disaster,” explained company president Dennis DesRosiers.

“In addition, slow sales of Windsor-built Chrysler minivans and the closure of Ford’s St. Thomas intermediate sedan plant placed downwards pressure on Ontario’s production performance,” he continued.

What’s more, the investments that the Big 3 automakers have made in their Michigan-based facilities have “ballooned” production there, DesRosiers said.

And the growth isn’t just limited to the American Midwest, either.

“While America’s Southern states have yet to surpass the traditional Great Lakes manufacturing regions in outright volume, many automakers have been lured below the Mason-Dixon by a combination of tax incentives, low land prices and a non-unionized work force,” DesRosiers added.

“With its new intermediate sedan facility in Chattanooga, Tenn., Volkswagen is but the latest of a long list of German, Korean and Japanese manufacturers choosing the American South for major production investments,” he continued.

Offering some perspective, though, DesRosiers emphasized: “The battle between Ontario and Michigan for top assembly jurisdiction in Canada and the U.S. should be understood in the context of the continent’s broader production dynamics.”

Specifically, he stressed that the number of Mexico-sourced vehicles is up 15.7 percent year-to-date and have shown to be strong sellers in “value-driven” North America, giving examples of “hot sellers” like the Ford Fiesta and Volkswagen Jetta.

Mexico is building more cars than Canada for the fourth year in a row, DesRosiers noted.