| -

WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. — J.D. Power and Associates doesn't think the sharp improvement in new-vehicle retail sales experienced during the first half of July kept enough steam to drive up full-month results by a large factor.

This is why firm analysts believe a slowed sales pace during the final two weeks of July likely will pull down the retail selling rate. J.D. Power figures it should come in at approximately 9 million units from a previously projected rate of 9.4 million units.

For total sales, J.D. Power contends the seasonally adjusted annualized rate will settle at slightly below 12 million units. Analysts project fleet sales should make up for some of the decline in retail sales.

However, the company also asserts July will post the strongest total SAAR since the rate of 14.1 million units in August 2009, which was sparked by Cash for Clunkers. It's also an improvement from a total SAAR of 11 million units calculated in June of this year.

"Softening of sales as July progressed indicates some vulnerability in the market, likely brought on by the lack of escalating incentive levels," explained Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power.

"The benefit of the fiscal stimulus has faded, which has led to slower economic growth and a decline in consumer confidence — both of which may have contributed to the slowdown in mid-to-late July," Schuster added.

J.D. Power based its forecast on real-time transaction data from more than 8,900 retail franchisees throughout the United States.