WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. -

In what appears to be a major sign of progress for the global auto market, worldwide new light-vehicle sales in 2011 are likely to reach an annual record for the second year in a row thank largely to s a healthier global economy, according to J.D. Power and Associates.

The firm also said that U.S. new light-vehicle sales are predicted to climb 12 percent and hit 13 million units this year.

Overall, J.D. Power is projecting 76.5 million new-vehicle sales throughout the world this year, a gain of 6 percent from 2010, which represents the current record for full-year sales.

The prior record before 2010 occurred in 2007, when yearly sales reached 70 million.

“Overall growth in the world economy has been supporting further recovery in auto sales,” shared John Humphrey, J.D. Power’s senior vice president of automotive operations.

“We’re seeing signals of stability and increased consumer demand for new vehicles as economic optimism increases,” he added.

Citing key markets like China, India and Brazil, J.D. Power expects that emerging markets will be on the forefront of this growth in 2011. In fact, emerging markets are expected to increase their share of global light-vehicle sales from 51 percent in 2010 to 53 percent this year.

This marks yet another indication that emerging markets are the pivotal catalysts to near-term global auto sales growth, analysts suggested. Last year was the first time that emerging markets boasted the majority (51 percent) of the world’s vehicle sales.

Conversely, the mature markets this year are likely to be a “mixed” bag. A likely more robust U.S. economy is likely to push up new-car sales here, but things are expected to be different in Western Europe and Japan.

There is likely to be static new-car sales in Western Europe and softer sales in Japan, J.D. Power noted.

Last year — when most regions were showing gains in auto sales — Western Europe dropped in the midst of the government-sponsored scrappage program drawing to a close.

Moving along, analysts believe that global GDP will climb at least 4 percent this year, compared with 4.6 percent GDP growth last year.

While not as strong as the GDP growth a year ago, this sum would likely be plenty robust to push many markets to continued auto sales recovery and maintain emerging market auto sales growth.

“From a global standpoint, 2010 was a combination of recovery and strong growth in emerging markets,” said Jeff Schuster, J.D. Power’s executive director of global forecasting.

”Growth in 2011 is not expected to be as pronounced as it was in 2010. However, 2011 appears to be a stable environment with more manageable growth rates balanced across the world, as the recovery in the auto market will continue in many countries,” he continued.

J.D. Power also noted that it projects a 7-percent gain in light commercial vehicle sales this year. Light commercials sales are likely to command an 18-percent share of new-vehicle sales in 2011. Passenger vehicle sales are likely to climb about 6 percent, officials noted.

Moving along, J.D. Power offered a breakdown of various global regions, beginning with the North American market.

North America

Here, sales are likely to reach 15.5 million units, which would be an 11-percent year-over-year hike. The catalyst for this uptick is expected, again, to be the U.S., which J.D. Power predicts will have 12-percent stronger sales.

Meanwhile, Canada is expected to see its auto sales climb 4 percent. Officials pointed out that the recession did not hit the Canadian market as hard as it did the U.S.

J.D. Power projects that Mexico will move 900,000 new vehicles in 2011, a gain of 8 percent year-over-year. Improvements there largely hinge on how much the U.S. bounces back, officials explained. High inflation in Mexico also plays a role.

Europe

Across the pond, it’s a different story than in North America, J.D. Power noted.

New-vehicle sales are expected to dip modestly and come in at 18.1 million units for 2011.

“While the underlying economic drivers are expected to improve, Western Europe will continue to face challenges in 2011,” Schuster explained. “Payback from the discontinuation of the scrappage program that extended into 2010 in many markets has not been as significant as expected, and the debt crisis remains a serious risk.”

Subsequently, J.D. Power is projecting that Western Europe’s new-vehicle sales will dip 2 percent to 14.2 million vehicles. However, Eastern Europe — pushed by incentives like Russia’s scrappage program and Turkey’s low-interest rates — has shown a speedier rebound and this is likely to persist this year.

2011 sales for Eastern Europe are predicted to hit 3.9 million, a 4-percent hike over the prior year.

Asia

Moving over to Asia, J.D. Power expects the market to show growth again in 2011, though less pronounced than last year’s gains.

Officials project sales of 32.2 million units, up 7 percent year-over-year, which they said is more “sustainable” than the 25-percent hike achieved in 2010.
Asia is likely to command 42 percent of the world’s vehicle market this year.

China, for one, is likely to improve 11 percent and hit vehicle sales of more than 19 million. That nation will once again be the world’s largest auto market, with projected sales that are 6 million vehicles higher than the No. 2 market, the U.S.

J.D. Power also indicated that the future continues to look bright for China, as well. Last year, China moved 17.2 million units, which was an increase stronger than 30 percent.

“China continues to be the market to watch in Asia, and the driver for global market growth,” noted John Zeng, director of Asian automotive forecasting at J.D. Power Asia Pacific, Shanghai. “China’s automotive market remained robust in 2010, defying all expectations that the market would slow along with the economy. We expect sales to slow somewhat in 2011, but still maintain double-digit growth.”

South America

Finally, J.D. Power delved into South American projections. There has been significant rebound in the overall economy in South America, as well as its auto market. Growth in both of these segments, however, is projected to slow down this year. GDP growth is likely to come in somewhere between 4 percent and 5 percent.

“The major near-term risks to the region include rising inflation and continuing monetary tightening, a sudden reversal in investor confidence, and a possible credit bubble in Brazil, which is the largest auto market in the region with nearly 75 percent of sales,” Schuster noted.

In particular, J.D. Power foresees further struggles in Venezuela’s auto industry, as an extended recession, high inflation and imported vehicle shortages push down on sales.

A year ago, sales came in at a figure less than 110,000 units, representing one-fourth the auto sales seen three years earlier.