Kontos: April Wholesale Prices Stay Near Peak Levels
ADESA’s Tom Kontos discovered average wholesale used-vehicle prices in April remained near peak levels achieved during both the spring tax season last year and previously in 2010.
According to ADESA Analytical Services monthly analysis of wholesale used-vehicle prices by vehicle model class, April wholesale prices averaged $10,577 — down 0.5 percent compared to March and flat relative to April 2011.
Among model class segments with considerable volume, Kontos noted that compact cars, minvans and smaller SUVs tended to yield stronger prices, “perhaps reflecting ongoing selectivity among dealers in favor of more fuel efficient cars and trucks with which to stock their used-car lots.”
After recapping the overall price trends, Kontos emphasized, “As we’ve discussed in several past commentaries (and as other analysts and data sources have begun to reinforce) used-vehicle prices have probably seen their cyclical and seasonal peak and, absent events like last year’s tsunami, have more downside potential than upside.
“Still, tight supplies are likely to keep used vehicle prices from falling dramatically the rest of this year and well into 2013,” he projected.
A deeper look into ADESA’s data revealed manufacturers registered a 1.2-percent month-over-month price increase and a 4.0-percent year-over-year rise.
The company also reported fleet/lease consignors experienced a 1.4-percent sequential price increase and a 1.9-percent annual increase.
ADESA mentioned dealer consignors saw a 0.5-percent average price increase versus March and a 0.9 percent uptick versus April of last year.
After discussing wholesale prices, Kontos turned his attention the retail side of the used-vehicle industry.
The ADESA economist recapped CNW Research data that determined April retail used-vehicle sales were flat year-over-year for franchised dealers and down 8.0 percent for independent stores, “possibly reflecting pushback from used vehicle shoppers facing high prices and in some cases opting for new vehicles as a result.
“Perhaps a reflection of this trend was that April sales of certified used vehicles, which are typically the closest substitutes for new vehicles, were down 18 percent month-over-month and 8 percent year-over-year based on data from Autodata,” Kontos continued.
“Nevertheless, total retail used-vehicle sales were up by over 40 percent on a month-over-month basis, reflecting typical spring weather and tax season demand,” he concluded.