CARMEL, Ind. -

As Tom Kontos put it, May’s wholesale pricing activity certainly backs up the assertion that he and ADESA Analytical Services have had for some time: used values have likely peaked.

In fact, as part of his look at monthly pricing trends, Kontos revealed that the average wholesale price in May was $10,271, which was 2.9 percent softer sequentially and 1.8 percent lower than May 2011. Moreover, used prices could be en route to a "ceiling" in relation to new-vehicle prices, Kontos said.

However, the analyst emphasized that given tight used supply and robust retail demand, there’s not likely to be a dramatic downturn in used prices.

“Reinforcing our longstanding view that used-vehicle prices have probably seen their cyclical, as well as seasonal, peaks, average wholesale used-vehicle prices were down on a year-over-year and month-over-month basis in May,” Kontos noted.

“Tight supplies may be easing, as dealers take more trades on rising new-vehicle sales, and used-vehicle prices may be approaching a ceiling relative to new-vehicle prices,” he continued. “Thus, there currently appears to be more downward than upward pressure on used-vehicle prices.

“Still, used-vehicle supply remains relatively tight and retail used-vehicle demand remains strong, so prices are not likely to fall precipitously,” Kontos added.

Vehicle Segment Movements

Sharing some trends within individual vehicle categories, average wholesale prices in the car categories fell 4.8 percent year-over-year to $9,546, which marked a 4.1-percent slide from April. Meanwhile, truck segment prices jumped 1 percent from May 2011 at $11,038, but this was 1.8 percent softer than April’s average truck value.

Among the 13 car and truck segments included in ADESA’s analysis, just two saw their values increase from April, both of which were truck categories.

“Full-size vans and full-size SUVs were the only segments that showed month-over-month rises, aided by easing gasoline prices during May,” Kontos noted.

Specifically, full-size vans climbed 2.8 percent sequentially, and full-size SUVs were up 3.3 percent.

The most significant decline from April among cars was the full-size car segment (down 4.4 percent), while the compact pickup had the steepest month-over-month downturn (4.6 percent) on the truck side.

On a year-over-year basis, four of the five car segments declined and the full-size car segment was static. The most significant drop among these was in the compact car segment, where values fell 6.9 percent.

As for trucks, the eight segments were split evenly between year-over-year decline and increases.

The most significant gain was for full-size vans (up 10.5 percent), while luxury SUVs had the strongest decline (down 5.1 percent).

Prices by Consignors

Moving over to consignor types, Kontos illustrated that there was a 3.2-percent month-over-month gain and a 8.6-percent year-over-year hike for OEMs, “reflecting continued tight supply of late-model off-rental and off-lease vehicles.”

For fleet/lease consignors, prices dropped 3.1 percent from April while increasing 0.2 percent from May 2011. Prices for dealer consignors were down 3.8 percent month-over-month and off 2.9 percent year-over-year.

Online Movements

Next up, Kontos shared some trends regarding OPENLANE’s U.S. Market Index.

“As part of the ongoing integration between ADESA and OPENLANE, we are initiating coverage of the OPENLANE U.S. Market Index based on data from the OPENLANE online marketplace as summarized below,” he explained before the report then delved into the statistics.

In the aforementioned summary of the U.S. Market Index, it was revealed that there was a 3-percentage-point month-over-month decline in overall U.S. auction prices in May. These prices wrapped up the month 8 percentage points below the year-ago period.

On a sequential basis, all body styles saw their prices decline.

Cars were off 2 percentage points during the month, and wound up being 8 percentage points softer than May 2011. Prices for minivans fell 3 percentage points month-over-month and SUV prices were off 5 percentage points month-over-month.

Lastly, there was a 2-percetage-point decline for truck prices during May.

“The OPENLANE market index reinforces the wholesale price trends seen in the ADESA Analytical Services data,” Kontos stated.