Lane watch: Strike brings return of wholesale price seasonality
Black Book found a different way to examine the United Auto Workers strike and its impact on the wholesale market.
Analysts arrived at their assertion after spotting another 0.36% decline in wholesale prices last week. Black Book pointed out that movement was slightly less than the average downward movements its team spotted during the same week in 2017 through 2019 — before the pandemic, before the labor strife involving the Detroit 3 automakers, before inflation and interest rates began to impact consumers and dealerships significantly.
“With the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike continuing, the market is in a period of uncertainty,” Black Book said in its newest installment of Market Insights released on Tuesday.
“One thing was for sure last week, buyers were active, and sellers were ready to let go of some inventory. Values continue to decline, but the rate of decline is in line with typical seasonality, unlike before the strike when values were reporting massive weekly declines,” Black Book continued in the report.
Looking closer at the data, Black Book reported overall car segment values dropped 0.47% on a volume-weighted basis. That’s 13 basis points more than the previous week.
Analysts found that cars depreciated at roughly the same rate last week no matter how old they were. They indicated prices for zero- to 2-year-old cars declined 0.28%, and values for 8- to 16-year-old cars decreased 0.33%.
Black Book found that prices for all nine car segments decreased last week, with midsize cars leading the way at 0.65%.
In fact, analysts noticed that prices for midsize cars have now dropped for 12 consecutive weeks, sustaining an average weekly decrease of 0.79%.
After weeks of value increases, Black Book mentioned compact cars reversed course, as prices softened by 0.53%.
And buyers appear to be still revved up for zero-to 2-year-old premium sporty cars, as prices for those specific models surged higher for the fourth week in a row and climbed 0.70%, according to Black Book
Looking next at trucks, Black Book said the overall segment sustained a value decline of 0.32% on a volume-weighted basis.
Newer models held their value ground a bit more, as analysts indicated prices for zero- to 2-year-old trucks dipped only 0.21%. Meanwhile, prices for 8- to 16-year-old trucks declined -0.38%.
Black Book found that only one of the 13 truck segments posted a value uptick last week. But analysts had to do some complex mathematics to find it, as values for sub-compact crossovers edged up just 0.004%.
Analysts noted that vales for compact vans tumbled 1.38%, extending a string of declines to 27 straight weeks. Analysts calculated the average weekly decline during that stretch to be 0.65%.
As mentioned previously, Black Book explained the UAW strike has brought some familiar seasonality to wholesale prices, pushing the estimated average weekly sales rate to 56% last week.
“Now one month into the United Auto Worker (UAW) strike, and it appears there is no end in sight with more walkouts and layoffs in recent days,” Black Book said.
“The wholesale market continues its roller-coaster ride, as auction conversion rates saw a 4% increase over the previous week while auction inventory was stable. Wholesale prices are still declining though,” analysts continued.
“Now, with higher auction inventory and sellers willing to lower floors, buyers are back in buying mode, which was apparent last week, as conversion rates increased. Hold on and let’s see what happens in the coming weeks,” Black Book went on to say. “As always, we have our team of analysts focused on keeping their eyes on the market, watching for developing trends and gathering insights.”