Recalls Lead Edmunds.com to Adjust Market Share Forecast, Pricing
SANTA MONICA, Calif. — The ongoing turmoil surrounding Toyota prompted Edmunds.com analysts to alter its sales forecast for 2010, sliding the automaker out of the second position in the U.S.
Edmunds.com said recalls will push Toyota's market share from 17.57 percent down to 16.45 percent.
"The recall will cost Toyota more than a full percentage point of U.S. market share," stated Edmunds.com senior analyst Ray Zhou.
"We anticipate that General Motors, Ford and Honda will pick up the majority of the sales Toyota loses," Zhou said.
Moving into the second spot behind GM in Edmunds.com's forecast was Ford, climbing to 16.57 percent from 16.36 percent.
"It now seems clear that Ford will overtake Toyota to reclaim its position as the second biggest automaker in the U.S. market," predicted Edmunds.com senior analyst Jessica Caldwell.
Meanwhile, Edmunds.com also adjusted its True Market Value prices for affected Toyota vehicles.
Analysts contend that new vehicles subject to the Toyota recall are selling for an average of 0.5 percent, or $150, less than earlier this year. They said used vehicles included in recalls are being sold by dealers for approximately 3 percent less than earlier this year, while affected trade-ins are garnering an average of 6 percent less than before the recalls were announced.
Edmunds.com anticipates that consumers may see unprecedented price hikes by automakers in the coming years.
"As a result of the public spotlight on the Toyota recall, automakers may have no choice but to devote more resources to safety in the future," noted Edmunds.com chief executive officer Jeremy Anwyl.
"Cars may be equipped with more on-board diagnostic sensors, be subject to more testing and be built with higher quality parts," Anywyl speculated. "Will consumers be willing to pay the price for their own safety?"
|Edmunds.com Revised 2010 U.S. Market Share Forecast|
|Automaker||Projected Share Before Toyota Recalls||Projected Share After Toyota Recalls|
|Chrysler Group||9.08 percent||9.16 percent|
|Ford||16.36 percent||16.57 percent|
|General Motors||17.87 percent||18.12 percent|
|Honda||11.14 percent||11.32 percent|
|Hyundai||7.12 percent||7.22 percent|
|Nissan||7.65 percent||7.73 percent|
|Toyota||17.57 percent||16.45 percent|
|Total||86.79 percent||86.57 percent|