Retail used-car market by the numbers: Supply, demand, prices & EV metrics
It was good news, bad news for the retail used-car market in January.
Supply softened on both a year-over-year and sequential basis, but so did prices. Used-car demand fell over 7% from January 2023, but was up almost 14% from December.
And both supply of and demand for used EVs is rising, and prices are softening.
These are just some of the trends and data shared in the inaugural monthly Industry Insights Report from Cars Commerce released Thursday. Data analysts from the company develop the report, which delves into a range of macro and micro auto market trends through analysis of supply, demand, pricing and consumer behavior across the various Cars Commerce platforms.
“The new Cars Commerce Industry Insights Report taps into our unparalleled access to industry and car-shopping data, offering a clear view into the forces shaping the automotive market right now,” said Rebecca Lindland, senior director of industry data and insights at Cars Commerce, in a news release.
“Our proprietary and highly exclusive data from the Cars Commerce platform empowers consumers and automotive retailers alike with the most up-to-date information on pricing, inventory and demand so they can make better buying and selling decisions,” Lindland said.
Looking of some of the used car-specific data in the Cars Commerce report, pre-owned supply was down 4% year-over-year in January, while dropping 3.1% from December.
Used-car demand fell 7.6% from January 2023, but jumped 13.7% from December.
Used prices dropped 2.9% year-over-year and 2.2% month-over-month, Cars Commerce said.
Meanwhile, the used EV market should an altogether different trendline.
Supply of pre-owned EVs was up 6.9% from January 2023 and beat December levels by 9.2%.
There was a 13.1% year-over-year spike in used EV demand, which rose 4.6% from December.
Meanwhile, used EV prices fell 19% from a year ago and dropped 3.6% from December, the data shows.
In a separate but similar report, CarGurus examined some of January’s used-car price, supply and demand movements, as well.
As reported in the company’s Intelligence Report for January, the CarGurus Used Vehicle Availability Index last month was up 6.3% year-over-year, but was down 2.3% from December and trails pre-COVID levels by 8.1%.
Average used-vehicle listing prices in January, were down 1.6% from December and fell 4.1% year-over-year. However, they’re ahead of pre-COVID levels by 36.5%, according to CarGurus.
In January, there was 3.2% month-over-month increase in average days on market for used cars, but a 3.8% year-over-year decline. Average days on market is up 10.1% from pre-COVID levels, CarGurus data shows.
Used-vehicle demand has dropped 0.2% month-over-month, according to CarGurus’ index, and fallen 2.9% year-over-year.
But the used-car market is seeing some improvements in affordability, CarGurus said. While the estimated average used-car monthly payment of $573 in January is up 2.8% from the same month two years ago, it is down from the peaks north of $600 over the summer, the data shows.
“January data shows positive signs for vehicle affordability with average new car prices remaining flat over the past three months and average used prices down about 4% year-over-year,” said CarGurus director of industry insights and analytics Kevin Roberts said in comments accompanying the report.
“The big question in the affordability equation is interest rates. Despite the fact that the average car list price decreased by 10.5% over the past two years, the average monthly payment for those same vehicles is up 2.6% over the same period due to increased rates,” said Roberts, who is among the experts scheduled to appear during Cherokee Media Group’s Auto Intel Summit + National Remarketing Conference that runs April 23-25 in Cary, N.C.
“With growing signs we could see rate relief in 2024, this may be the year that shoppers can finally realize the benefits of improving prices on their wallets,” he went on to say.
Like the Cars Commerce report, the CarGurus analysis breaks down movement in the used EV market, as well.
Pre-owned EVs saw their average list price drop 20.6% year-over-year in January, as these fell to $38,700.
There was an 11% year-over-year hike in used EV inventory on the CarGurus platform last month. Their average turn time was 82 days, while internal-combustion-engine used vehicles had a turn time of 84 days.
When considering a 66-month installment contract with an interest rate north of 15%, used EVs have a $257 monthly payment premium over ICE vehicles, according to the CarGurus data.