CARY, N.C. -

The final numbers have been tallied, and it turns out that last year’s certified pre-owned sales fell short of the record high by just over 2%.

That’s according to a Data Point report from Cox Automotive, citing an analysis of Motor Intelligence data. 

There were 2,748,164 certified sales in 2021, which beat prior-year figures by 5.4% but was 2.2% lower than the record year of 2019, the report said.

However, Cox Automotive is projecting 3.0 million CPO sales this year, which be an all-time high and the 10th such record in the last dozen years.

“We lost ground in the last part of 2021, but we are forecasting a record in 2022,” Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke said in the analysis. “The demand is there, and CPO fits a very important sweet spot. It is the best alternative to a new vehicle. 

“It’s something that is a win for the manufacturer, and many manufactures are focused on CPO as a strategic segment to introduce consumers to their brands. Consumers who have good credit and qualify for certified pre-owned loans see substantially better terms or rates that make a big difference in their payment and that more than compensates for the higher price of a certified pre-owned unit. And it’s a win for the dealer because on average they are commanding a higher price and higher margin even with the higher certification cost.”

But while the demand for CPO is strong, the well may soon run dry on worthy supply.

In fact, the number of off-lease vehicles (which tend to be prime candidates for CPO programs) entering the wholesale market is likely to fall from 4.0 million in 2021 to 3.9 million in 2022 and then drop to 3.3 million for 2023. The forecast for 2024 is 3.5 million.

“Off-lease vehicles are normally the largest source of commercial vehicles sold at auction. While the total number of leases scheduled to terminate remain near record highs, the number making their way into auction sales channels are at record lows,” Manheim Consulting vice president Kevin Chartier said during an industry conference call.

“This is due to the incredible surge in resale values and the corresponding increases in the equity positions of the terminating lease vehicles. Normally, 60% or more of the terminating leases find their way into the wholesale used-vehicle market,” Chartier said. “However, with today's tremendous equity position, the vast majority of these vehicles are being purchased at lease termination and prior to entering the wholesale market, leaving less than 15% of the normal volumes heading to the auction in the fourth quarter of the year.”

Lower supply, particularly for the CPO-friendly off-lease variety means this year is likely the last record year for the market.

“We’re a little bit down on lease maturities. So, there’s enough volume to give us a record in 2022 and that's what we're forecasting,” Smoke said during the call. “But it’s probably going to be the last year we can set a record, because the declining lease maturities going forward after 2022 is going to make that much harder to pull off. But we definitely see the demand and the supply there for one more year.”

There were 186,748 CPO sales in December, which was up 3% from November but down 19% from December 2020.

During the conference call, Kayla Reynolds, who is the economic and industry insights manager at Cox Automotive, said that over the course of autumn, the certified pre-owned market went from appearing like it would beat the 2020 and record 2019 sales volumes, to a market slowing down from the omicron variant of COVID-19 and the ongoing pandemic.