SANTA MONICA, Calif. -

TrueCar.com’s February used-vehicle sales forecast looked mixed when compared to the previous month as well as how the industry performed a year ago.

Site analysts believe February used-vehicle sales will total 1,710,750 units, a figure that combines the activities of franchise and independent dealerships as well as private party sales. That total would mark a 6-percent rise from February of last year, but it would be a 15-percent decline from the opening month of 2011.

TrueCar.com thinks the February ratio of new sales to used sales will be 3 to 1.

Delving deeper into new-vehicle sales, the site projects February new light vehicle sales in the U.S. — including fleet — will total 924,516 units. On an unadjusted basis, that figure would represent a 19-percent jump from a year ago and 13-percent rise from the previous month.

As a result, TrueCar.com indicated its February forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate of 12.5 million new-vehicle sales, down slightly from 12.61 million in January but up significantly from 10.41 million in February of last year.

Analysts also asserted retail sales are up 12 percent compared to January and are 27 percent higher than February 2010. Meanwhile, they think fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 20 percent of total industry sales this month.

To move all of those units, TrueCar.com projects the industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,708 this month. That amount represents a 5-percent rise from last month, but a downtick of less than 1 percent from a year ago.

“We are finally seeing some consistency in new car sales with SAAR above the 12 million range over the past five months,” explained Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry trends and insight for TrueCar.com.

“With solid demand in the marketplace, SAAR will continue to stay at or above its current rate for the rest of the year,” Toprak declared.

TrueCar.com went on to share forecasts for the top seven manufacturers for February:

TrueCar.com Feb. 2011 Unit Sales Forecast
 Manufacturer
  Feb. 2011
 Forecast		  Change vs.
 Jan. 2011		  Change vs
 Feb. 2010
 Chrysler  88,806  26.7 percent  5.2 percent
 Ford  151,611  19.4 percent  10.4 percent
 General Motors  194,341  8.6 percent  37.7 percent
 Honda  89,061  16.8 percent  10.4 percent
 Hyundai/Kia  72,463  11.5 percent  24.8 percent
 Nissan  79,097  10.1 percent  12.7 percent
 Toyota  127,762  10.3 percent  27.7 percent
 Industry  924,516  12.8 percent  18.6 percent

TrueCar.com Feb. 2011 Market Share Forecast
 Manufacturer  Feb. 2011  Jan. 2011  Feb. 2010
 Chrysler  9.6 percent  8.6 percent  10.8 percent
 Ford  16.4 percent  15.5 percent  17.6 percent
 General Motors  21.0 percent  21.8 percent  18.1 percent
 Honda  9.6 percent  9.3 percent  10.3 percent
 Hyundai/Kia  7.8 percent  7.9 percent  7.4 percent
 Nissan  8.6 percent  8.8 percent  9.0 percent
 Toyota  13.8 percent  14.1 percent  12.8 percent

TrueCar.com Feb. 2011 Incentive Spending Forecast
 Manufacturer  Feb. 2011
 Incentives		  Change vs.
 Jan. 2011

 Change vs.
 Feb. 2010

  Total
 Spending
 Chrysler  $3,676  + 7.7 percent  + 3.3 percent  $326,421,123
 Ford  $2,571  + 6.8 percent  – 8.7 percent  $389,767,494
 General Motors  $3,683  + 0.5 percent  + 10.1 percent  $715,799,658
 Honda  $2,111  + 4.7 percent  + 16.2 percent  $187,978,740
 Hyundai/Kia  $1,563  + 13.6 percent  – 27.9 percent  $113,227,283
 Nissan  $2,706  + 7.8 percent  – 11.2 percent  $214,051,593
 Toyota  $2,134  + 8.8 percent  + 18.5 percent  $272,690,380
 Industry  $2,708  + 5.0 percent  – 0.4 percent  $2,504,025,863

The forecasts for two automakers caught Toprak’s attention most.

“Unlike General Motors of the past decade, the new GM’s increased incentive spending has been well calculated,” Toprak surmised. “If GM is able to increase their sales volume by over 30 percent while increasing incentive spend by 10 percent, they should do that every month.

“Toyota’s increase was helped by the automaker being at the epicenter of their recall crises last year and before their incentives push,” Toprak went on to note. “Toyota will have a hard time increasing market share until later this year, when new models are expected to hit the showroom floor.”

TrueCar.com reiterated that its analysts base their forecast on actual transaction data.

“The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macroeconomic data such as major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts and CPI,” the site explained.

“TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations,” the site concluded.