Webb: Manheim Index Continues Upward Climb
The year’s opening reading of the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index extended the pattern established through much of 2010 — a steady move higher.
Manheim’s Tom Webb pinpointed January’s mark at 124.9. The figure represented a 0.4-percent uptick from the previous month and a 6.2-percent jump from a year ago. The index has moved higher each month since August.
“January’s gain represented a continuation of the two-year rise in used-vehicle prices, which has now pushed values up by more than 27 percent,” Webb explained.
“The ability of wholesale used-vehicle prices to rise — after meeting and then stretching the natural limitations imposed by the market — is a testament to the restructuring of the new-vehicle marketplace, most notably, the manufacturers’ ability to produce to specific demand and achieve higher transaction prices,” Webb continued.
Offering more analysis of year-over-year price advancements, Webb pointed out that midsize and small cars have shown real strength.
“In fact, they are now the two strongest segments on a year-over-year basis,” he said, noting that the midsize car segment is up 8.9 percent while the compact segment is right behind at 8.5 percent.
Elsewhere, Manheim noticed van prices are up 7 percent year-over-year while pickups are higher by 5 percent. SUV/CUV prices are 3-percent higher now than a year ago and luxury cars settled a modest 0.7-percent higher.
Webb delved deeper into one other particular segment, mentioning that the rise in gas prices slowed large SUVs but not as much as reported.
“With gas prices on a national basis rising above $3 a gallon (and further increases likely), much has been made of the recent weakening in prices for large SUVs,” Webb surmised.
“They have in fact moved down — whether one is looking at straight averages or at prices adjusted for changes in mileage and seasonality,” he continued. “But it should be noted that adjusted prices are down only half as much as the straight averages. That’s because the average mileage on a full-size SUV sold at auction has risen significantly over the past year.”
Moving on, Manheim discovered that no matter what type of vehicle model, middle- and lower-priced used vehicle segments are also strong.
“The growing availability of subprime financing pushed prices for end-of-service fleet units higher in January,” Webb learned. “A mileage- and seasonally adjusted price index for midsize fleet cars reached an all-time high in January.
“Lower-priced units, like those bought by buy-here, pay-here dealers, were much sought-after in January,” he went on to say. “As dealers continue to have better access to wholesale financing, auction pricing for these units will remain strong.”
Along with units that might end up on BHPH lots, Manheim determined that off-rental prices climbed last month, too.
“The average auction price for a rental risk unit hit a new high for the month of January. The limited supply of program vehicles also sold quickly — and at high prices,” Webb shared.
“The strength in pricing for off-rental units (and for late-model vehicles in general) is reflective of the changing new-vehicle market,” he explained. “Balanced inventory levels, higher transaction prices, and new models that truly differentiate themselves in the eyes of consumers mean new vehicles are in less price competition with the sale of late-model used units.”
And speaking of new vehicles, Webb reiterated previously reported data that showed new-vehicle sales strengthened further in January.
Webb recounted that the seasonally adjusted annual rate of new vehicle sales was 12.6 million last month.
“This built upon the steady rise achieved in 2010 — an 11.0 million pace in first quarter, 11.3 million in the second, 11.6 million in the third and 12.4 million in the fourth,” Webb stated. “January’s sales gain, like that of the fourth quarter, was not dependent on fleet sales. In fact, fleet sales declined in both of those periods.”
Wrapping up his index report, Webb shared numbers computed by CNW Research that revealed used-vehicle sales climbed more than 6 percent in January.
“Additionally, of those manufacturers that have already reported CPO sales for the month, most showed significant increases,” he concluded.