A topsy-turvy ride at the county fair or an amusement park might be fun, but when it comes to used-vehicle prices, such ups and downs can wreak havoc for dealers, auctions, remarketers, forecasters and more.

Good thing for the auto industry is that signs point to “less of a roller coaster in the new year,” according to Cox Automotive.

The company’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index released Thursday shows that wholesale values (when adjusting for mix, mileage and seasonality) fell 2.1% month-over-month in November, while declining 5.8% year-over-year.

Without those adjustments, prices were off 2.9% sequentially and 7.5% from November 2022.

December is expected to be steady, with projections for an even-keel 2024.

“While November’s decline was only slightly less than October’s, the move lower was on our radar, given the typical seasonal downward trend that paused in August and September,” Cox Automotive senior manager of economic and industry insights Chris Frey said in a report accompanying the index.

“Prices still have a chance of rising slightly in December, though we’re not predicting an odd spike or trough. Rather, we’re expecting a measured movement through the end of the month and the year, which should get us close to the January forecast for a 4% year-over-year decline by December 2023,” Frey said. “We’ll share our 2024 forecast during our January 8 call, but current views suggest less of a roller coaster in the new year.”

As prices in the overall wholesale market fell 5.8% year-over-year last month, compact cars were down 11.3%, luxury vehicles dipped 6.3%, midsize car prices dropped 8.3%, pickups fell 4.6%, SUV/CUV prices were down 5.4% and van prices fell 6.4%, according to the Cox data.

Looking at another measure of wholesale vehicle prices released Thursday, Black Book’s Used Vehicle Retention Index for November came in at 153.45, down 4.7% month-over-month and 10.5% year-over-year, seasonally adjusted.

Following the end of the United Auto Workers strike, the used-car market has entered “a correction phase,” as prices slowed greatly in November, the company said.

Brisk conversion rates from last month are likely to continue in December, they added.

“Reversing the stability in October, wholesale sale prices declined substantially in November across all segments and age buckets,” Black Book chief data science officer Alex Yurchenko said in an analysis of the index.

“With the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike behind us and new sales going strong, the used market went into a correction phase — we had four weeks of declines exceeding one percent,” he said.

“Conversion rates at the auctions improved as remarketers wanted to move the inventory quicker,” Yurchenko said. “We expect the same trend to continue through the end of the year as declining used vehicle prices will stimulate healthier consumer demand.”