Auction sales increase for second straight year, but gains may be short-lived

After reaching a “post-pandemic nadir,” wholesale auction sales climbed for the second straight year, jumping nearly 10% in 2024. But with a staggering drop in lease maturities on the horizon, sales are likely to remain static in 2025 before moving up a bit in 2026.

That’s according to the latest AuctionNet data and accompanying commentary from the National Auto Auction Association.

There were 6.74 million auction sales last year, which beat 2023 figures by 9.6%, NAAA said. While still below the pre-COVID 8.18 million auction sales were 16.4% stronger than 2022, when the market hit a post-COVID bottom of 5.79 million.

“Overall, 2024 marked another rebound year for auction sales following the post-pandemic nadir that occurred in 2022,” said Larry Dixon, who is NAAA’s vice president of Auction Data Solutions and AuctionNet, in the analysis.

“Commercial sales were the primary reason for last year’s increase in sales, with broad-based growth across rental, commercial, off-lease, and repo units. Dealer sales were also up, albeit ever so slightly.”

More specifically, dealer sales were up 0.5% year-over-year but were down from 2023 for the majority of the year, NAAA said. There was a 23.7% spike in commercial sales, however.

Breaking it down by vehicle age, sales of 0- to 2-year-old vehicles, where off-rental vehicles make up a strong contingent, were up almost 8%, NAAA said. Off-lease volumes helped drive a 16.6% increase in 3-year-old vehicle sales and gains in repo volumes led to a 10% hike in sales of vehicles 7 years or older.

However, those spikes in commercial volume won’t last — nor will the overall gains in auction sales, Dixon said in the commentary.

He points to 41% decrease in lease maturities that S&P Global Mobility expects for the first half of the year, which will dampen sales of off-lease units at auction. The forecast isn’t much better for another commercial segments, either.

“Given that new-vehicle sales into rental fleets were essentially flat in 2024, we should only expect a modest improvement in rental auction volume in 2025, while repossession volume will likely continue the flattening trend observed over the latter half of 2024 through 2025,” Dixon said.

“Dealer used-vehicle acquisition efforts will also be affected by lower off-lease volume, which means that dealer appetite for trade-ins will grow (thereby stymying auction inflows),” he said.

“On net, the outlook for physical auction sales in 2025 is effectively flat with a bit of downside bias. That said, the market should see some growth return in 2026 due to the double-digit improvement in new vehicle sales and leasing that occurred in 2023.”

Top-sellers and EV volumes

When it comes to internal combustion engine vehicles, the 2021 Toyota Corolla 4D Sedan at LE 1.8L had the most AuctionNet sales in 2024 with 8,923 vehicles sold, NAAA said.

The 2021 Tesla Model Y 4D SUV Long Range 100 kWh was the best-selling electric vehicle at auction, with 6,977 sales.

And it wasn’t the only hot-selling Tesla model.

“Sales of Tesla units more than doubled, rising 113% to nearly 63,000 units last year, and the brand’s models were responsible for 58% of all EV auction sales in 2024,” Dixon said. “In fact, Tesla auction sales were so prolific in 2024 that its vehicles comprised the top 10 selling EVs for the year.”

Overall, there was a 74.9% increase in EV sales at auction last year.

Note: This is part of a monthly series in which Auto Remarketing shares AuctionNet data and commentary provided by the National Auto Auction Association.

As noted by the organization, more than 260 NAAA member auctions power AuctionNet, making it the most comprehensive source of wholesale auto auction sales data in the U.S. Unless otherwise noted, auction sales figures are based on total reporting auctions, the number and composition of which may vary over time.  Data below courtesy of AuctionNet/NAAA.