How wholesale vehicle prices have started 2022
The wholesale vehicle market has started 2022 with some mixed signals, it appears.
After reaching an all-time in December, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index climbed another 0.8% in the first half of January. But that gain was largely driven by seasonal adjustment, Cox Automotive said in a Data Point report Wednesday.
“The non-adjusted price was statistically unchanged from December,” Cox said.
Still, wholesale prices remain quite elevated. In fact, the mid-month reading of the Manheim index is up 46.0% year-over-year and all major segments showed seasonally adjusted growth.
Van prices are up 60.4% year-over-year, compact cars are up 53.7%, midsize cars are up 50.5% and SUV/CUV prices have climbed 46.6%.
Luxury cars are up 36% from a year ago and pickup prices have increased 33.3%.
However, there was some slowdown from December.
“Compared to December, compact cars, luxury cars, and pickups saw small declines, all below 1%,” Cox said. “In the first half of January compact cars had the largest gain.”
Separately, the Manheim Market Report index has shown some softness in the first two weeks of the month.
“The Three-Year-Old MMR Index, which represents the largest model year cohort at auction, experienced a 1.3% cumulative decline over the last two weeks,” the company explained.
“Over the first 15 days of January, MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to current MMR, averaged 98%, which indicates that market prices are trending down faster than valuation models,” it added.
The average daily sales conversation rate reached 52.5% in the first two weeks of January. That’s down from December (52.7%), but a bit above seasonal averages.
“The latest trends in the key indicators suggest wholesale used vehicle values will likely see further small declines in the second half of the month,” Cox said.
Elsewhere, Black Book has seen some of the same week-over-week declines to start the year.
For the week ending Saturday, the overall market was down 0.13% week-over-week. In the first full week of 2022, prices were down 0.15%.
The average change during the 2017 to 2019 time frame was a decrease of 0.56%.
Most segments in Black Book’s data set showed decreases last week, with vans bucking the trend.
In terms of how fast the market is moving, Black Book said: “Sales rates are improving compared to the end of 2021, but have not returned to pre-holiday levels.”
More details on Black Book’s latest Market Insights report can be found here.