DALLAS -

Think of the used-car supply picture back in 2010 through 2012.

These were the years in the aftermath of the Great Recession, automaker bankruptcies and, ultimately, new-vehicle sales tanking.

“All you dealers out there that remember trying to get used cars, especially lease maturities back in 2010, 2011, they weren't there,” Jonathan Banks, vice president of product and vehicle valuations at J.D. Power, told a crowd at the J.D. Power Auto Summit last week in Dallas.

“We’re in a similar situation with used supply now, now that we're rolling into 2023,” Banks said. “We kind of get our first real impact from that decline in sales."

That situation, of course, is the aftermath of COVID-19 and new-vehicle production delays, exacerbated by a microchip shortage, all of which stalled new-car sales.

After reaching a peak of 16.3 million units in 2019, the wholesale supply of zero- to 5-year-old vehicles has declined for three consecutive years, according to J.D. Power data Banks shared.

It is expected to drop from 15.1 million in 2022 to 14.1 million, roughly a 6.6% decline.

But the wholesale supply is off-lease vehicles will likely fall 12% this year, according to J.D. Power, followed by a 6% drop next year and a 10% drop in 2025.

Overall wholesale supply of vehicles up to 5 years old is expected to fall to 13.5 million in 2024 and decline again to 12.7% million in 2025, according to J.D. Power.

“Meanwhile, that wonderful 3-year-old (vehicle) that's been taken care of meticulously by the lease buyer has declined even more than the overall pool,” Banks said, adding that these cars are typically certified pre-owned candidates and a “great substitute to new.”

“Supply is going to be tough this year, more so next year, and continue out,” Banks said.

With wholesale supply down, dealers in turn may have continue finding different ways to acquire used cars.

“You've done an incredible job at figuring out different ways to buy your inventory besides the auctions, which is awesome. Getting those direct-consumer buys,” Banks said of dealers.

He added: “It's inevitable that your best way to get that customer in is to get them in by giving them a good, honest price on their trade-in.”

With numbers indicating that 40% want to conduct the trade-in process online, Banks said dealers must, “understand and be fair with the consumer on their price. You've got to be in the ballpark,” even if they’re not the highest offer.