Lane watch: 3 factors dragging wholesale prices
Black Book isn’t referencing the Fourth of July hangover your friend had when reporting that wholesale values struggled again last week.
Analysts detailed in their newest installment of Market Insights that wholesale prices dropped another 0.45% during the span that finished on Saturday.
“The declines that started before the July 4th holiday weekend appear to not be holiday related anymore as the rate of decline increased last week,” Black Book said in the report.
“Consumers are starting to feel some relief at the gas pumps, but there are still concerns of a recession and the auto industry is starting to see the effects of low consumer confidence, rising repossessions and higher interest rates,” analysts continued.
Beginning with the car market, Black Book indicated that its volume-weighted data showed car values decreased 0.47% last week, more than doubling the decline of 0.20% seen a week earlier.
Black Book said all nine car segments decreased last week. Perhaps to the surprise of some dealer managers, analysts found that compact cars dramatically increased the rate of depreciation, declining by 0.72% compared to the prior week’s decline of 0.08%.
When gas prices surged, values for compact cars rose 14 straight weeks, according to Black Book’s tracking. But now, not only are compact car values sliding, Black Book reported that prices for sub-compact cars softened another 0.10%.
Also of note, analysts said luxury car values dropped by 0.50% last week.
Looking next at trucks, Black Book indicated that its volume-weighted data showed overall truck segment values decreased 0.44% last week, which was nearly identical to the 0.43% drop seen during the prior week.
Analysts said 12 out of the 13 truck segments posted value decreases, with full-size luxury crossovers leading the way with a 0.65% drop. They pointed out that those vehicles now have softened in price for 27 straight weeks.
Black Book added prices for full-size pickups declined for the fourth consecutive week, sliding another 0.54%
Amid softening values, analysts mentioned the estimated average weekly sales rate increased to 67%.
“The wholesale market this week still has few model year 2022 vehicles; newer used vehicles (model year 2020 and 2021) continue to dominate the lanes,” Black Book said. “These lower mileage vehicles in the lanes are in clean condition with rarely any issues.
“Buyers are still active in the lanes, and sellers are more open to negotiation,” Black Book continued. “With floors starting to soften and the holiday week being over, sales rates have started taking a turn and slightly increased last week. Gas prices are coming down a little bit, but the market is still softening with lots of decreases across almost all segments.
“Similar to the trend two weeks ago, last week there was a decrease in all car segments,” analysts went on to say. “Compact cars decreased heavily followed by luxury, midsize and full-size cars. In the truck segment, full-size vans are the only vehicles increasing. Compact vans took a turn and went into negative territory last week. full-size luxury decreased heavily followed by full-size pickup, mid-size luxury, and mid-size crossovers. With the market starting to soften up, we anticipate that these segments will continue to decrease.”