Lane watch: New data proving Black Book’s August prediction
Black Book chief data science officer Alex Yurchenko previously predicted, “We expect the wholesale prices to accelerate their declines in August as consumers are staying away from large purchases.”
Black Book’s newest weekly data reinforced Yurchenko’s expectations, since wholesale values dropped another 0.89% during the span that closed on Saturday. That decline is slightly more than the previous week’s decrease of 0.86%.
In this week’s installment of Market Insights, Black Book harkened back to when so many things about the car business — and pretty much life in general — changed dramatically.
“The market experienced a significant decline last week, reminiscent of the declines experienced during Q3 of last year and the declines felt at the start of the pandemic,” analysts said in the new report distributed on Tuesday.
“Auction lane conversion rates showed some slight improvement last week, as sellers have adjusted their floors to reflect the weakening consumer demand,” analysts added.
Black Book’s volume-weighted data showed car values also followed the overall market, dropping another 0.92% a week after softening by 0.91%.
Prices in all nine car segments decreased last week, according to Black Book
Analysts noted that the luxury car segments paced the declines, as prices for near luxury cars and prestige luxury cars dropped 1.37% and 1.34%, respectively.
AAA reported on Monday that national average for a gallon of gas now stands at $4.05, which is 67 cents less than a month ago. Perhaps as a result, Black Book noticed prices for compact cars slid another 1.06% after rising for 14 consecutive weeks in tandem with costs at the pump.
Even subcompact cars gave back 0.48% in value last week, more than the double the previous week’s drop of 0.21% according to Black Book
Furthermore, Black Book’s volume-weighted data showed overall truck segment values decreased 0.88% last week, slightly more than that prior week’s drop of 0.84%.
Analysts said all 13 truck segments reported price decreases, with subcompact luxury crossovers leading the way by softening another 1.90%.
Black Book mentioned other notable price drops among trucks, including full-size luxury crossover/SUVs (down 1.72%), compact crossover/SUVs (down 1.27%), and midsize crossover/SUVs (down 1.34%).
As referenced, Black Book noted that the estimated average weekly sales rate dropped slightly last week to 65%.
“In the wholesale market last week, there were more model-year 2022 vehicles trickling in through the lanes as well as newer used vehicles offered (model year 2019 to model year 2021) in average condition,” analysts said in the report.
“Large independent dealers were not as active, but the smaller franchise dealers were still very busy,” they continued. “Sales rates were slightly softer than weeks prior, and inventory was very low. Sellers floors are continuing to soften with the market continuing to show signs of weakness.
“Fuel prices for both gas and diesel are following the downward trend which may help increase consumer demand but still both the car and truck segments continued to decrease last week,” Black Book added.