Lane watch: Stable close to 2024 & optimism for 2025
The newest installment of Market Insights from Black Book recapped stable developments in the wholesale space during the close of 2024 and conveyed optimism about what the auction scene might be like in 2025.
Analysts said wholesale values decreased 0.44% last week while the auction conversion rate came in at 54%.
“As we look back at the final week of 2024, depreciation remained stable amidst rising auction inventories and improved conversion rates compared to the Christmas week,” Black Book said in the report. “Last week’s depreciation trends reflected a balance, with vehicles maintaining their values more steadily as auction activity picked up post-holiday.
“As we transition into the new year, the wholesale market has started off similarly to mid-December, with slow depreciation,” analysts continued. “Last week, the overall car segments remained stable, while the overall truck segments experienced a slight increase in depreciation. Notably, the full-size truck segment has been improving over the past three weeks, exhibiting less depreciation.
“Last week, we observed an increase in auction inventory and higher conversion rates, trends that are expected to continue in the coming weeks as we move past the holiday season,” analysts went on to say.
Looking closer at the car data, Black Book noticed prices for near luxury cars dropped by 0.62%, which was the most significant single-week decline for the segment since June.
Analysts also spotted varying value directions for subcompact cars. Prices for those units between 2 and 8 years old declined by 0.58%, while values for those gas-sippers less than 2 years old increased by 0.23%.
In the truck department, Black Book reported that value declines for full-size crossovers paced the decreases among all 13 truck segments, sliding by 0.85%. Over the past four weeks, this segment has averaged a weekly decline of 0.78%, according to Black Book tracking.
And when it comes to pickups, analysts found that prices for full-size pickups softened by another 0.23% last week, which was consistent with the previous week’s downward movement. Analysts added that newer full-size pickups posted a value decline of 0.32% while units between 8 and 16 years old dropped by 0.41%.
With a full week of 2025 officially in the books, Black Book experts reiterated, “we’ll be closely monitoring the developments in the industry. This year, particular attention will be given to the effects of low new-vehicle sales from three years ago on the used market, as well as how changes in administration might influence EV adoption, among other factors.
“Looking ahead, we anticipate a robust wholesale market for 2025,” Black Book continued. “As always, our team of analysts are focused on the keeping their eyes on the market for developing trends and gathering insight.”