Black Book identified “the real winners right now” amid a wholesale market where prices are still softening and the estimated average weekly sales rate has not jumped like this time last year.

Analysts determined wholesale values dipped another 0.51% during the week that closed in between St. Patrick’s Day and the first day of spring; typically, a time when dealers are feeling pretty lucky because some are making a pot of gold during tax season sales.

Perhaps fuel prices and other market turbulence are keeping some used-car managers from hitting that submit button when bidding online or raising their hand in the lanes. Black Book pointed out in the latest installment of Market Insights released on Tuesday that the estimated average weekly sales rate has started to pick up during the last few weeks. But reading remained at 65% again last week.

“March is nearly over, and the estimated average weekly sales rate has not had a large increase like CY21,” analysts said in the report.

“With fuel prices rising, the sub-compact car segment moved into positive territory and compact cars slowed the rate of decline last week,” Black Book said. “However, the overall market continues to decline, but the pace of the declines has been slowing in recent weeks.

“In the pre-COVID market, we would expect the spring market / tax season increases to start around this time of year,” analysts went on to say.

As mentioned, Black Book discovered that prices for sub-compact cars increased 0.07% last week. But on a volume-weighted basis, the overall car segment decreased, softening by 0.52%. However, that’s not as much as the previous week when car values decreased by 0.81%.

Perhaps with retail buyers not quite ready for spring driving, Black Book noticed the largest car values declines were for sporty cars (down 1.49%) and prestige luxury cars (down 1.39%).

Looking at trucks, Black Book found that last week’s volume-weighted data showed that overall truck segment decreased at the same amount as the overall market, dipping 0.51%. That’s similar to the previous week’s decline 0.56%.

Analysts said 12 out of the 13 truck segments reported declines.

Which one move higher? Yep, values for those full-size vans jumped another 0.71%.

Conversely, two truck segments watched their values decline more than 1%. They included sub-compact luxury crossovers (down 1.64%) and small pickups (down 1.31%)

Analysts added that fuel-efficient crossovers are continuing to decline in value, but the rate downward has lessened with sub-compact crossovers and compact crossovers each softening by 0.46%.

So, who are those “real winners?” Here’s how Black Book experts explained the current situation after reviewing all of their latest data.

“Heated competition has led to increased prices in some lanes,” Black Book said. “Many segments showed less severe overall depreciation this week and sub-compact cars even increased in value for the first time since January.

“Franchise dealers have started noticeably competing against large independent dealers for desirable units, but rental partners have really shown their dominance in many lanes, especially for cleaner, low-mileage vehicles,” analysts continued. “With a spring / tax-season market essentially here, franchise and independent dealers alike need inventory to entice customers. Not to mention, with COVID restrictions rolling back, travel plans have significantly increased domestically for spring and summer breaks, so rental companies are more than happy to pay top price for cleaner, low-mileage vehicles as they turn over their high mileage inventory.

“It seems the real winners right now are the sellers that still have inventory,” Black Book concluded.