Black Book explained that typically it takes six to eight weeks for retail market prices to reflect declines in wholesale pricing.

The newest installment of Market Insights showed the automotive world is about at that point.

Analysts reported wholesale values fell another 0.90% last week.

“The wholesale market continued its decline last week, with the rate of decline remaining consistent with the past seven weeks,” Black Book said in the newest report released on Tuesday. “Retail listing volume has been increasing and retail listing prices are starting to soften.”

Black Book added that its used retail days-to-turn estimate “seems to be remaining somewhat stagnant,” sitting at around 41 days.

While that estimate likely won’t trigger numerous “lot rot” alarms, dealers who turn to the consignment lanes to rid themselves of aged inventory might not get as much when the hammer drops for those units as they would have when we were shooting off fireworks for the Fourth of July.

Black Book indicated that car values on a volume-weighted basis gave back another 0.89% during the week that ended Saturday. That’s after car prices decreased by 0.84% a week earlier.

Yet again, analysts said values for all nine car segments declined last week, with compact cars continuing to reverse the gains those units made when the average cost for a gallon of gas was well above $4 per gallon.

Black Book said prices for compact cars now have dropped for 12 weeks in a row, as the models paced the depreciation declines for cars last week at 1.17%.

Also of note, analysts mentioned prices for sub-compact cars sunk 0.62%, marking the largest single week decline for the segment since the middle of last August.

Black Book noted that all 13 truck segments posted price decreases, too, resulting in a volume-weighted value decline for trucks of 0.91%. A week earlier, truck prices dropped 0.97%.

Pacing the truck price declines were full-size crossovers/SUVs (down 1.59%) and small pickups (down 1.46%).

Analysts mentioned that for the first time in eight weeks, values for full-size luxury crossovers/SUVs didn’t drop more than 1%. Last week’s price decrease for those units came in at 0.44%.

Black Book wrapped up this latest update by mentioning the estimated average weekly sales rate remained at 58% last week.

“Even though floors remain high, buyers keep showing up. Sales rates across the board have been fairly dismal,” analysts said. “Although we have been in a holding pattern over the last few weeks, there seems to be some positive momentum on the horizon.

“After dominating the lanes for months, rental companies have been relatively quiet in the lanes lately, as some manufactures are beginning to allocate inventory to fleets again,” Black Book continued. “This may also be why franchise dealers have been noticeably absent in lane, as new inventory becomes more consistent for some dealers.”

Black Book then elaborated about what might be ahead for the wholesale market with just a little more than a week left both in September and the third quarter.

“As we head toward the fourth quarter, during a normal year, we would expect model year changeovers and rapid-fire launches,” analysts said. “While that has not been the case over the last two years, this year could be different. Manufacturers have moved forward with refreshes and redesigns for model year 2023 and 2024 vehicles, and we look forward to seeing those at dealerships soon.

“Independent dealers have stayed consistent in lane, always on the hunt for low mileage, good condition ‘unicorns,’” Black Book went on to say. “There were more IF sales last week, which could indicate that sellers are more willing to negotiate. Wholesale values have had significant decreases, much higher than would be expected this time of year.”