Lane watch: Why older vehicles are the ‘real headline’
What you might have thought of as just a back-lot beater that only starts, steers and stops might be the vehicle currently most in demand in both the wholesale and retail markets.
Black Book said the “real headline” of last week was the value increase for vehicles 8 to 16 years old, as analysts determined prices for these units rose 0.19% during the stretch that closed on the day after April Fool’s Day.
Analysts explained why it’s certainly no joke why dealers want these vehicles.
“The spring/tax season market is usually strongest on cheaper/older vehicles,” Black Book said in the newest installment of Market Insights released on Tuesday.
“And with wholesale values reporting a record 28.7% increase in 2021, dealers are having to look at even older model years to purchase in the ‘sweet spot’ for pricing for their tax season shoppers,” analysts added.
Overall, Black Book said wholesale prices ticked 0.15% lower last week. But on a volume-weighted basis, overall car segment values were nearly unchanged as they decreased just 0.02%.
Analysts noted that prices within three of the nine car segments increased last week, with compact cars rising 0.30%, almost as much as the combined rise of the three other car and truck segments.
Meanwhile, Black Book said values for near luxury cars (down 0.23%) and luxury car (down 0.22%) continued to soften.
As far as truck go, analysts found that overall values on a volume-weighted basis decreased 0.21%, as prices for 11 out of the 13 truck segments declined.
Going counter to the overall truck trend were full-size vans, which rose another 0.25% to notch 62 consecutive weeks of increases, along with compact crossovers, which posted a price increase of 0.11% after 15 consecutive weeks of depreciation.
Black Book also mentioned prices for full-size luxury crossovers/SUVs dropped the most among trucks, softening by 0.81%.
“Despite high fuel costs, sub-compact crossovers continue to decline; 15 consecutive weeks so far,” analysts added.
After sharing all of the wholesale price movements, Black Book pointed out two other notable metrics.
Analysts said the estimated average weekly sales rate continues to climb, as this past week it hit 68%, “which is very similar to the trend seen in CY21.”
Black Book added that the used retail days-to-turn estimate also dropped last week and is now just above 38 days.
“An increased estimated average weekly sales rate paired with a lower used retail days-to-turn estimate at this time of year is a positive indicator for a spring market,” analysts said.
Spring certainly is apparent in the sports world, with the Final Four finished and the Masters and the Major League Baseball season set to begin on Thursday. So what might be ahead for dealers?
“Auction lanes continue to heat up this week — trends are emerging that have not been seen before,” analysts said. “With so many newer used vehicles’ wholesale values inflated, the 8- to 16-year-old vehicles are taking the spotlight for this year’s spring / tax season market.
“In lane, larger independent dealers still seem to be targeting off-lease models (MY18-MY19) for their consumers while the newest used vehicles (MY20-MY22), especially those in cleaner conditions with lower mileage, are in bidding wars with rental companies and franchise dealerships,” Black Book continued. “Rental companies are still having some difficulties acquiring inventory from manufacturers directly and have been extremely competitive in lane, further driving up prices. With Americans gearing up for summer travels while supply chain issues continue to disrupt inventory of parts and new vehicles, increased competition from rental companies is anticipated to continue through the fall.
“As new inventory sprinkles in from manufacturers, the sentiment in lane feels hopeful with sellers appreciative of the bidding activity and the buyers happy to have a few more choices,” analysts concluded.