Manheim index makes nearly record-breaking drop in August
While still higher versus a year ago, Cox Automotive noticed its wholesale price index made a near-record move lower in August.
Cox Automotive reported on Thursday via a Data Point that wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 4.0% in August from July. That decline left the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index at 210.8, which is still 8.4% higher compared to a year ago.
However, the index reading sliding by 8.8 points in a single month is the greatest movement in the history of this wholesale market tracker going back to 2008 with the exception of the drop from 141.9 to 125.8, which happened from March to April 2020 at the start of the pandemic.
Still, Cox Automotive pointed out the non-adjusted price change in August represented a decline of 2.6% compared to July, leaving the unadjusted average price 5.9% higher year-over-year.
In August, Cox Automotive indicated Manheim Market Report (MMR) values posted larger-than-normal declines that were consistent over the month. Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased a net 2.5%, according to Cox Automotive.
“Over the month of August, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to current MMR, averaged 98.3%, meaning market prices were below MMR values,” Cox Automotive said in the Data Point.
“The average daily sales conversion rate increased to 50.5%, which was below normal for the time of year,” experts continued. “For example, the sales conversion rate averaged 56.4% in August 2019. The lower conversion rate indicated that the month saw buyers with more bargaining power for the time of year.”
Turning to vehicle segments, Cox Automotive determined all major market segments saw seasonally adjusted prices that were higher year-over-year in August, except for full-size cars.
Experts noted that compact cars generated the largest price increase at 15.9%, followed by vans and midsize cars, which all had seasonally adjusted year-over-year gains ahead of the overall industry.
Compared to July, all eight major segments’ performance was down, according to Cox Automotive.
Experts found that prices for sports cars softened nearly 5%, while compact and midsize cars declined 3.5% and 3.0%, respectively. Cox Automotive added that prices for SUVs dipped by 4.3%, while van prices were off by 2.9%.
Cox Automotive closed the wholesale market part of its latest Data Point by mentioning rental risk mileage declined in August, with prices holding stable from last year.
Experts determined the average price for rental risk units sold at auction in August rose 15.7% year-over-year but dipped 0.8% compared to July.
Cox Automotive noted that the average mileage for rental risk units in August came in at 56,500 miles, which was 19.4% lower than a year ago and 3.9% below the July reading.
Editor’s note: Cox Automotive’s estimates of used-vehicle retail sales in August will be included in an upcoming report for Cherokee Media Group Premium Members.