Q2, especially April, could be ‘strongest’ time for used-car values
Though still considerably higher than year-ago levels, wholesale vehicle prices declined sequentially for the second consecutive month.
And the slowdown appears far from over, according to Cox Automotive, which said its Manheim Used Vehicle Vehicle Index came in at 223.5 in March.
While up 24.8% year-over-year on a mix-, mileage- and seasonally adjusted basis, that reading is 3.3% softer than February’s.
Without the seasonal adjustment, prices were up 0.6% from February and 23.2% from March 2021.
Looking forward, the current month could be the highest price point of the year before further downturn comes, Cox said.
“We anticipate the second quarter — and particularly April — will be the strongest part of the year for used-vehicle sales and values,” Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke said in a news release.
“Once we get through the spring, we expect demand to wane somewhat and should see closer to normal price depreciation patterns for the rest of the year. That said, we think our call for not expecting a price crash in 2022 — just depreciation — is still very likely given continued challenges with supply conditions,” Smoke said.
Looking at the March vehicle value movements by select market classes, vans were up 37.7% year-over-year, compact cars climbed 33.8% and luxury cars were up 24.4%.
Midsize car values were up 27.7% from March 2021, while SUV/CUV prices moved up 24.5% and pickups were up 10% in value.
“Recent declines in the MUVVI are driven mostly by the seasonal adjustments. In fact, the wholesale used-vehicle market was gaining strength in the final weeks of Q1, a sign the spring bounce is finally here,” said Chris Frey, senior manager of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive, in a news release.
“We expect to see strengthening wholesale values in April and May, with an uptick in demand for used vehicles, driven in part by tax refunds putting more cash into the economy,” Frey said.
Elsewhere, Black Book’s Used Vehicle Retention Index has now fallen two months in a row. This after going six months without a sequential decline,
The company said Wednesday that the index, which is based on Black Book’s published wholesale average value of 2- to 6-year-old vehicles, came in at 187.7 for March, which was down 2.8% from February.
This decline follows a 2% sequential decline the prior month.
That said, the index was up 33% year-over-year and was 64% from March 2020 at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.