Cox Automotive spots potential boost for sagging consumer confidence
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in August after declining in July, too.
But the latest consumer survey by Cox Automotive pinpointed what could reverse that course and potentially push retail vehicle sales and financing higher.
In what might not come as a surprise to some managers, the possible tonic is another direct stimulus payment to consumers from the federal government.
According to the latest segment of the ongoing 2020 Cox Automotive COVID-19 Consumer Impact Study, the percentage of consumers in the market to make a vehicle purchase in the next six months is at its lowest level since the pandemic began in early March.
As of Saturday, Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke indicated the survey data showed the level of intention to purchase within the next six months stood at just 15%. That’s below the spring readings of 20% Cox Automotive recorded in March and April as well as the metrics from earlier this summer (17% in mid-June and 16% in July).
“The pent-up demand is gone,” Smoke said in a video that accompanied the survey data.
According to the Cox Automotive consumer survey, the top reasons for a vehicle-purchase delay in:
— Waiting to see if the federal government will provide a second stimulus check: 28%
— Concerned about cost/financial situation: 27%
— Concern about having contact with people: 26%
— Prefer to stay home/social distancing: 20%
— Not driving as many miles as usual/don’t need a vehicle now: 19%
— Waiting to see if I can get a better deal or special incentive: 19%
Likely not helping demand is sagging consumer confidence as tracked by the Conference Board, which shared its latest index about the economic element earlier this week.
Its Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 84.8, down from 91.7 in July.
The board reported its Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — decreased sharply from 95.9 to 84.2.
And its Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions — declined from 88.9 in July to 85.2 this month.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was Aug. 14.
“Consumer Confidence declined in August for the second consecutive month,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index decreased sharply, with consumers stating that both business and employment conditions had deteriorated over the past month.
“Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook, and their financial prospects, also declined and continues on a downward path,” Franco continued in a news release.
“Consumer spending has rebounded in recent months but increasing concerns amongst consumers about the economic outlook and their financial well-being will likely cause spending to cool in the months ahead.”
What’s cooling that spending is reduced unemployment benefits stemming from the CARES Act as an additional $600 week from the federal government to the more than 30 million Americans who have lost their job expired at the end of July.
The spring also included $1,200 payments to individuals with more money from the federal government going to married couples and families with children. Perhaps some consumers used a portion of that money to make a vehicle purchase.
Should Congress and the White House agree on another COVID-19 relief package and include direct payments to individuals and families, dealerships and finance companies could see some of that money based on what surveyed consumers told Cox A,utomotive.
A total of 62% of consumers who participated in Cox Automotive’s project expect to get another stimulus payment with their intentions including:
— Pay monthly household bills: 41%
— Everyday spending: 37%
— Pay off debt (loans, credit cards, etc.): 37%
— Save all or some of the money: 35%
— Pay for home service or repair: 14%
— Pay for vehicle service or repair: 14%
— Purchase/down payment on a vehicle: 8%
— Purchase/down payment on a home: 5%
Should federal lawmakers return to Washington, D.C., and continue dialogue about assistance, they will be met with consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions receding.
The Conference Board determined the percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are “good” declined from 17.5% to 16.4%, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” increased from 38.9% to 43.6%.
Consumers’ appraisal of the job market also deteriorated, according the board’s latest findings.
The percentage of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” declined from 22.3% to 21.5%, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased from 20.1% to 25.2%.
The Conference Board went on to mention consumers were also more pessimistic about the short-term outlook.
Experts said the percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months declined from 31.6% to 29.9%, while those expecting business conditions will worsen edged up slightly from 20.2% to 20.5%.
Furthermore, the Conference Board noted consumers’ outlook for the labor market was less positive.
The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead declined from 29.6% to 29.1%, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased from 21.3% to 21.9%.
Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an increase declined from 14.8% to 12.7%, while the proportion expecting a decrease rose from 15.8% to 16.6%.
Smoke wrapped up his latest video analysis with comments that might forecast some rough sledding ahead for dealerships and financing when it comes to potential retail sales and contract originations.
“We have a high level of unemployment and reduced benefits occurring, so there is much concern about demand soften from that perspective,” Smoke said.
“And when you look at the market, record prices and low inventory making it a less attractive time to buy and now we’re seeing a significant number of would-be buyers saying they’re waiting for another stimulus check to make a purchase,” he said.