CARY, N.C. -

After a downturn in 2020, the used-car market is expected to kick off a multi-year rebound in sales, with numbers expected to eclipse the 40 million mark in 2022, say analysts with Cox Automotive.

According to Friday's Cox Automotive Industry Insights 2021 presentation, there was an estimated 36.7 million total used-vehicle sales in 2020. While that’s down from 40 million in 2019, Cox Automotive is projecting used sales to climb to 39.3 million this year and 40.2 million next year, before moving down slightly to 39.8 million in 2023.

Cox Automotive estimated that used-car retail sales (those involving a dealer) fell from 20.8 million in 2019 to 19.5 million last year.

But those used retail numbers are expected to climb to 21.2 million sales this year, 22.1 million in 2022 and 22.4 million in 2023.

In Friday’s presentation, Cox Automotive manager of economic and industry insights Zo Rahim said that, “we have seen a recovery in the retail market; this is especially true of the used-vehicle market. It is important to keep in mind that the total used-vehicle market in the U.S. is two-and-a-half times the size of the new-vehicle market.

“It absolutely dominates the automotive landscape. We have seen the used market improve greatly from the lows back in April.”

The used-car market tends to be less volatile, Rahim said, therefore the pre-owned market declines are not as steep as those in new cars. And they tend to bounce back faster.

While last year showed declines, “we can expect continued recovery in the used-vehicle market as we navigate 2021 and beyond,” Rahim said.

One area of the used-car market that remains especially strong is the certified pre-owned segment.

While 2020 sales failed to extend the streak of record years, they were still close to recent highs and have shown considerable gains since the spring.

“Where we saw the biggest improvement from April was in the CPO market. In December, CPO sales declined 2% year-over-year and were up 24% month-over-month,” Rahim said. “CPO sales ended the year with 2.6 million units (sold), down 7% in 2020.

“Gently used and younger used vehicles should continue to see consumer interest this year.”