NEW YORK -

A positive indicator for the auto market is not just that sales have increased, but it’s the manner in which the industry is improving, said IHS senior principal automotive economist George Magliano on Tuesday.

He pointed out the positive trends of decreased incentives, more robust leasing and looser credit.

That being said, the industry is dealing with "twin shocks" that will certainly have an impact this year; these shocks, of course, being oil prices and the Japanese disaster’s aftermath.

"Basically, we’ve got a double-whammy with oil and Japan," Magliano said during Tuesday’s NADA/IHS Automotive Forum in New York.

Combined, the two rippling phenomena are likely to diminish auto industry sales by 400,000 units this year, he indicated.

Looking at the disaster in Japan more specifically, around 480,000 units are expected to be taken out of the U.S. product stream within coming months, but this sum will be made up by year’s end once production is back on track, he added.

And the Big 3, in particular, are likely to see "major bottlenecks" when it comes to some of the components they import from Japan, such as electronics.

"Everyone will be impacted in the short run," Magliano pointed out.

He did note that with regards to the Japanese crisis, "We haven’t seen the impact yet." He said this since much of the disruption is localized.

New-Car Sales Projection, More

Continuing along, Magliano’s analysis also delved into a forecast for 2011 light-vehicle sales, which he said will likely reach 12.9 million units. Next year, the U.S. is poised to hit 14.7 million new-vehicle sales.

With regards to the segment mix, the "big movers" are the crossovers. Magliano pointed out that this "runs the gamut" in terms of sizes and price range.

"It’s a very strong, viable market," he said of CUVs.

Another segment expected to be robust, is the small-car segment, as consumers are looking for more value, Magliano shared.

Meanwhile, SUVs are "a difficult market" and "will struggle longer-term," he suggested.

As far as pickups, "It’s not going to be the booming market," he noted, but he added that it should show strength in the midst of the economic recovery as sectors like construction begin growing.