Beggs: All 24 of Black Book’s Vehicle Segments Drop in Same Week
The sustained decline in wholesale prices dealers have been eager to see might have finally come.
Last week, Black Book watched all 24 vehicle segments it tracks — 10 cars and 14 trucks — all drop. Managing editor Ricky Beggs indicated it has been more than three months since all declined in the same week.
In his weekly video report, “Beggs on the Used Car Market,” the Black Book veteran delved deeper into those widespread declines as well as dealer sentiment that indicated used-car managers are adjusting their “expectations” when scouring the lanes.
“The market is relatively stable as the percentage of changes that have seen increases to the previously published values has hovered around the low 20-percent level for the past six weeks,” Beggs surmised.
“The amount of increase which has ranged from $105 to $148 over the past 12 weeks was closer to the stronger level at $134 this past week,” he continued.
Black Book also noticed the spread of decreases during the past 12 weeks has ranged from $102 to $177.
Meanwhile, Black Book adjusted more than 1,400 vehicles per day last week with a the average movement being a decline of $74, similar to what the average has been the past three weeks when the average downward decline was $79.
“As one survey person reported from the Florida market that ‘the average common units are slipping,’ I can report we actually adjusted more average and rough condition values than extra clean and clean condition values,” Beggs mentioned.
Moving along to a discussion only about cars, Black Book pointed out the weeks of July 1 and 8 also ended with all 10 car segment dropping.
Last week’s overall car drop was $39. Black Book said when all 10 dropped in the same week back in July, the average was $22 and $18.
Black Book indicated the three most volatile segments within the cars were prestige luxury cars (down $71), followed by upper midsize cars (down $62).
“Even though they were on the wrong side of zero, the full-size cars moved south by just $11, while the compact cars decreasing by $14, were showing the best retention,” Beggs highlighted.
“It was an even split with segments above and below the overall change of $39 for the cars,” he added.
Beggs emphasized the truck segments are getting a lot of attention in the market right now.
“We are not that far from the real fall market with hunting season, which will be followed by inclement winter weather and the demand for 4×4 trucks and utilities,” Beggs indicated.
“I know that’s hard to imagine right now as the whole country has just suffered through two to three weeks of near record high temperatures,” he acknowledged.
For the third consecutive week, Black Book discovered all 14 truck segment types have decreased in value week over week.
There were six truck segment types that declined greater than the overall change, which was $38. Black Book said three of those were full-size crossovers (down $75), cargo minivans (down $66) and midsize SUVs (down $61).
Truck segments with the best retention while still declining, were midsize crossovers and compact SUVs, which each still dropped $20 each. Passenger versions of full-size vans and luxury SUVs also beat the segment average, sustaining declines of $21 and $22, respectively.
After discussing specific vehicle segments, Beggs turned his attention to a specific model year.
“As the 2011 models get closer to being a full-year old, we are seeing more of these actually sell at the auctions even though it is a challenge getting a reasonable difference from the new 2012s that are coming real soon, while also pushing the 2010s down slightly,” Beggs explained.
“This past week we posted initial market driven values on 15 additional 2011 models with various trim levels covered,” he added.
Not only do the sale prices vary, Beggs also said the comments are coming into Black Book from a variety of perceptions about the market, sometimes varying significantly.
“the one comment that stood out this past week was made by one of the Black Book survey personnel in the Florida market, referencing that ‘the dealers are adjusting their expectations,’” Beggs shared.
“With all of this movement in the market, having the latest market values with the Black Book Daily updates for your desktop or mobile unit should truly be an advantage for you over your competitor,” Beggs suggested.
Beggs wrapped up his video discussion by mentioning several remarketers will be in Dallas for the 10th anniversary of the International Automotive Remarketers Alliance with the 2011 Summer Roundtable.
“Thanks for your interest in our thoughts on the market.” Beggs stressed. “We welcome your comments and questions. Until then, we look forward to seeing you on the auction lanes.”
Beggs’ videos can be viewed here.