ATLANTA -

Think $9,500 isn’t getting you the same kind of vehicle at auction as it did a year ago? Manheim’s Tom Webb agrees and shared some data Monday to support the claim.

During his quarterly conference call, Webb delved into his findings when he looked at the average change in mileage by wholesale price tier, comparing the first half of last year with the opening six months of this year.

For vehicles that cost between $8,000 and $10,999 on the wholesale market, Manheim determined dealers are paying the same price for a unit with close to 8 percent or about more 5,600 miles.

If the dealership’s used-car manager is spending a little more — say between $11,000 and $13,999 — for that vehicle, Webb explained that same model has close to 4,000 more miles now than it did a year ago.

However at the highest price point — vehicle fetching wholesale prices of $14,000 or higher — dealers are actually getting a model with close to 1,000 less miles.

“If we look at it, as has been the case for some time, the strongest part of the market is in fact in the middle-price points,” Webb noted. “On the other hand, if you bought a vehicle in the higher price tier in 2012, you actually got a vehicle with fewer miles than it would have last year.”

And for dealers who are looking for lower-end models, the mileage is higher now than a year ago, too. Manheim found vehicles still costing less than $5,000 at the auction have close to 3,000 more miles. Units priced between $5,000 and $7,999 have almost 4,000 additional miles.

Off-Rental Movements

Webb spent a significant part of his teleconference highlighting changes in connection with off-rental risk units, which Manheim contends still are fetching record prices in the lanes.

Despite softening in June for the second consecutive month, Manheim determined that prices for off-rental models remain above $14,500 despite the average mileage ticking back up toward 40,000 miles.

Webb shared how he calculated a way the off-rental price movement looks more positive for dealers; how prices for these models might be 4.5 percent lower than a year ago.

“If we make some basic changes in the mix and mileage of vehicles being sold, I believe prices are not as high as they were a year ago,” Webb explained. “I believe this is a better portrayal of this space in the market. Keep in mind, there is no perfect shorthand that will allow you to capture all rental pricing trends in a single number. The proper analysis would be to do it individually, a model-by-model comparison that’s in the rental fleet. Naturally, that’s a little messy process.”

Meanwhile, the kind of vehicle dealers can find in the off-rental lanes is changing, too. Manheim discovered compact cars now are making up only about 25 percent of total off-rental volume, down from a level way above 30 percent just two years ago. Filling the void is a greater number of crossovers and vans, according to Manheim, which noticed the volume of midsize cars in the off-rental space is down as well.

One other noteworthy point about off-rental vehicles: Webb highlighted the volume of units from domestic automakers is down significantly. Back in 2002, Manheim found more than 80 percent of total off-rental volume came from General Motors, Ford or Chrysler. The level now is approaching 60 percent, with Nissan and Mazda holding a larger wholesale representation.

June Index Dips

To begin his discussion, Webb highlighted that wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) fell 1.4 percent in June. That brought the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to a level of 123.4, which represented a 3.2-percent decline from a year ago.

“June’s drop in wholesale prices was much faster than May’s (down 0.8 percent) and April’s modest decline of only 0.1 percent,” Webb explained.

“So are we now in a free fall? No, it has been an orderly retreat — one that is not yet over, but it should be a retreat that still leaves both buyers and sellers in a comfortable position, retail markets unperturbed, and profit opportunities intact,” he continued. “However, given that the economic recovery has recently become more tenuous, there is an outside possibility that the outcome may not be completely pleasant.”

With the index dropping for three consecutive months, Webb was asked whether the reading could hit 120 or lower. It hasn’t been that low since it stood at 118.9 in September 2010.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see it touch the 120 level. I would be surprised if we touched 115 level,” Webb projected. “The market is relatively strong. To really have a test for late-model used-vehicle pricing, you would have to assume that manufacturers got disappointed with the rate of new-vehicle sales and became more aggressive in their activity. I’m hopeful that will not be the case.”

Dealer Consignment Discussion

Auto Remarketing also asked Webb to share his assessment of how dealer consignment activity is behaving since prices dipped for the third consecutive month but remain above $10,000.

“They’ve been following the overall market. They’re still strong but have been waning a little bit in recent months as the overall market has,” Webb said about dealer consignment unit prices.

“Dealer consignment volumes at auction are up as they last year and the year before. It’s a strong part of our business,” Webb added. “The typical dealer-consigned vehicle does have considerably higher mileage on it than it did a year ago. I think we’re approaching 95,000 on an average basis. It’s getting on up there.

“It’s common knowledge that franchised dealers are retailing units they would have wholesaled in the past. That’s pushing it up a little bit,” he concluded.