SANTA MONICA, Calif. -

As a good chunk of automotive analyst companies revealed their predictions for July’s new-vehicle sales, noting they expect the month’s SAAR to rise above 14 million, experts also shared just which OEMs are likely to benefit the most from this sales spike.

Kelley Blue Book explained that it expects Japanese brands to lead industry grains, while it noted a couple domestic OEMs will remain relatively flat.

Ford and General Motors are expected to flat line year-over-year, but on the other hand, Chrysler is predicted to post a 16 percent gain.

“General Motors and Ford will maintain their existing market share until later this year when the highly anticipated redesigns of the Ford Fusion and Chevrolet Malibu finally go on sale,” officials explained. 

“Ford may see a slight bump prior to the launch of the Fusion as sales of the 2013 Escape increase, although it has lost some momentum in the last few weeks due to recalls,” they added, sharing why the Blue Oval may not be seeing sales gains this time around.

But as Japanese brands begin to reach full recovery from last year’s natural disasters, sales are on the way up for Toyota and Honda.

Toyota is expected to sell 168,200 units, up from 130,802 in 2011, marking a 28.6 percent year-over-year gain. And American Honda is predicted to sell 111,350 vehicles, up 38.3 percent from 2011’s 80,502 units sold during July.

“Toyota and Honda finally have regained most of the market share lost in 2011 due in large part to strong sales of the Toyota Prius family of vehicles, redesigned Toyota Camry, Honda Civic and Honda CR-V,” officials explained.

And KBB highlighted one more Japanese nameplate, noting it expects Nissan sales to increase in July “as the 2013 Nissan Altima begins to make headway with shoppers.”

Low Fleet Levels Take Toll on US Automakers

And what is contributing to the domestic automaker’s prevalent lack of sales growth?

Edmunds.com analysts pointed to July’s low fleet levels.

“Because domestic automakers tend to have a higher percentage of fleet sales, it’s no surprise that their market shares will all take a hit this month,” says Jessica Caldwell, senior analyst at Edmunds.com

“But with new product launches driving today’s ultra-competitive retail environment, it will be that much more difficult for any automaker to recover lost market share,” she continued.

The company also went on to highlight just how much market share it expects the Big 3 to lose this month.

First up, Edmunds.com noted it expects GM to hold 18.4 percent of the marketplace, falling 1.9 percent from July 2011’s 20.3 percent.

Ford is expected to hold 15.1 percent of the market, falling 2 percent from 17 percent recorded in July 2011. The Blue Oval’s predicted drop in market share would be No. 1 for all major automakers in July.

Lastly, Chrysler is also expected to see a slight drop, coming in at 10.5 percent of the market share, from .1 percent year-over-year.

Incentive Spending on the Way Down

Perhaps contrary to the typical late-summer season when OEMs are trying to make way for the latest model-year, Truecar.com shared incentive spending has fallen for the third month in a row.

The company predicts the industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,480 in July 2012, which represents a decrease of 3.7 percent from July 2011 and a decrease of 2.7 percent from June 2012.

“Average incentive spending has declined for the third consecutive month,” said Kristen Andersson, senior analyst at TrueCar.com.

“Japanese automakers are boosting their incentive spending this summer and becoming more aggressive in marketing their deals to lure buyers, which is a reversal from their historical patterns where the product itself was always at the center of their ad campaigns,” she continued.

Nissan is predicted to spend the most on incentives per unit this month ($3,205), with Chrysler trailing closely behind ($3,132).

And Toyota will see the biggest drop, Truecar.com shared. The Japanese brand is expected to spend $1,824 per unit, dropping 22.5 percent from incentive spending during the same period of 2011.

Production Growth

Lastly, J.D. Power touched on production trends for July, as well as the first half of the year.

For this month, vehicle inventory in early July slightly increased to a 58-day supply, compared with 52 days in June.

“Car inventory remains at a below-normal level with a 49-day supply, up from 43 days in June,” officials shared. “Truck inventory levels are at normal levels with a 67-day supply, up from 61 days in June.”

And painting a bigger picture, through the first half of 2012, the North American light-vehicle production volume increased 22 percent, compared with the same period in 2011, the company shared.

This spike equaled  more than 1.4 million additional vehicles being built in the first six months this year, relative to the first half of 2011, “with inventory replenishment and stronger demand in the first quarter being the main factor for the higher production volume,” officials explained.

And the Japanese nameplates are seeing an even bigger spike year-over-year, as production returns to normal levels after the natural disasters the country faced just last year. 

Honda and Toyota’s production in the first half this year is up 75 percent and 65 percent, respectively.

And LMC Automotive offered a production forecast for North American in 2012, noting it stands at 14.9 million units and represents a 14 percent increase from the 13.1 million units assembled in 2011.

Moreover, the company expects 2013 North American production to exceed the 15 million-unit threshold, to nearly 15.3 million units.

"Increases in North American production volume remain a bright spot in the automotive industry this year, as volume teeters at 15 million units and is at the highest level since 2007," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive.

"Much like demand, there remains some risk of a cooling as the year progresses, but inventory is being well managed,” he concluded.