ATLANTA -

In his latest look at broad economic indicators that might eventually sway auction and dealer activity, Manheim’s Tom Webb used the “R” word — recession.

The Manheim economist pointed out that U.S. retail sales fell 0.5 percent in June, marking the third consecutive monthly decline as federal officials issued revisions.

“The last time that happened, we were deep in recession,” Webb acknowledged in his July Auto Industry Brief.

“In fact, three consecutive monthly declines in retail sales has for decades been associated with an economy in, or about to enter, recession,” he added.

For dealers and auction executives who might wonder if uncertainty and lack of confidence are playing a role in these trends, Webb believes that neither factor is directly triggering the situation.

“It’s more simply a lack of money and jobs,” Webb insisted. “Note, for example, that the personal savings rate has been below 4 percent for four consecutive months, the first time that has happened since late 2007.”

If Webb’s commentary about retail spending didn’t signal a consumer pull-back, a recent JZ Analytics survey commissioned by TransUnion showed just how negative consumers are about their current financial situations.

The survey revealed that nearly four out of 10 Americans — 38 percent to be exact — said they are not at all financially fit and are very unhappy with their financial situation.

Survey orchestrators also noted that 43 percent of participants said there was something financially they would like to work on, while only 11.8 percent said they were financially fit and happy in all areas of their financial situation.

While consumers might still be struggling financially, Webb also noted that the commercial side of the economic equation is uncertain, too.

“Where confidence and uncertainty are playing a role is in the lack of job creation,” Webb explained. “Unlike households, businesses are flush with cash and they have low-cost credit readily available. But, uncertain future prospects, both here and abroad, have made businesses abundantly cautious.”

Webb recapped that total employment grew by only 80,000 jobs in June with the private sector doing only modestly better with a gain of 84,000 positions.

“With revisions, the three-month moving average of net job creation has fallen to 75,000,” Webb added.

Struggles in Europe

Webb began his look at how overseas activity could affect the U.S. economy with the comment, “the pain that is Spain.”

Although at least nine of the 27 European Union member countries are now officially in recession and another four on the brink, Webb emphasized that it is the trouble in Spain that has most “bedeviled” U.S. financial markets of late.

“And our financial markets are not overreacting,” Webb emphasized. “Spanish bond yields are now at their highest level since that ill-fated day when the euro was created.”

The Manheim economist recapped that the Spanish 10-year note rose above 7.4 percent and the two-year note jumped to 6.5 percent.

“This quick run-up in short-term yields is exactly what preceded the bailouts in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal,” Webb pointed out. “Spain has gotten its bank bailout, but it needs support for its national debt also.

“Although Spain is fundamentally a stronger economy, and in a better competitive position internationally, you can’t argue with the math — these borrowing costs are unsustainable. And, by sending a misleading message, these volatile bond yields can be disruptive to other countries,” he continued.

“For example, with investors too fearful to invest in Spanish bonds (despite record yields) and unwilling to accept the negative yields now offered on German short-term notes, there has been a flocking to French notes, which pushed those yields to record lows,” Webb went on to say. “As in the U.S., France’s low borrowing costs are not based on solid fiscal discipline, and they simply enable the country to avoid necessary fiscal measures.”

Discussion About Miles of Travel

In his question-and-answer segment, Webb addressed a query about how demographic and behavioral changes were lowering the trend rate of growth for vehicles’ miles of travel. The individual wondered what might have changed since vehicles’ miles of travel rose significantly in May.

Webb noted that, indeed, vehicle miles of travel jumped up 2.3 percent in May, pushing the 12-month running total up 1.2 percent. However, the Manheim economist insisted May’s comparison was against a low level in 2011.

“Gas prices were rising in May of last year, and falling this year,” Webb explained. “The annual level of vehicle miles of travel remains 3.1 percent below the peak level reached in November of 2007.

“Whether it is employment or vehicle miles of travel that reaches its previous peak first is anyone’s guess, but both clearly have a long way to go,” he added.