FREDERICK, Md. -

Auction volume in the first half of 2012 was roughly even from the same period of 2011, according to the National Auto Auction Association, which said all but one of the nation’s five regions saw an increase.

NAAA also forecasts that 2013 will show a “noticeable overall gain” in auction volume, thanks in part to an expected turnaround in fleet/lease and manufacturer/factory consignment numbers.

These were just some of the trends spotted in NAAA’s latest Auction Industry Report, which found that overall volumes were down 0.3 percent year-over-year in the first half of 2012. This essentially flat comparison is a significantly more moderate change than the 7.2-percent drop for full-year 2011.

“After a small revision that did not significantly change the data pattern, auction volume was about flat with last year in the first half, after a 7-percent decline in 2011,” wrote NAAA economist Ira Silver, who prepared the report.

“We anticipate a firming in the second half leading to a slight increase in volume for the full year,” he continued.

And then next year, auction volume is expected to show a strong uptick. Silver explained how trends within the consignment segments will likely play a role.

Beginning with the most recent trends within consignor categories, he noted: “The recent pattern of dealer consignment gains and smaller declines for fleet/lease and manufacturer/factory categories continued in the second quarter.”

More specifically, dealer consignment numbers jumped 7.2 percent in the first half of the year; and while volumes for the latter two categories both fell roughly 8 percent, their slide is much less steep than the respective 23.1-percent and 25.2-percent drop-offs for these segments for full-year 2011.

“This year, as the negative impact of weak new sales in 2008 and 2009 on current FL-MF (fleet/lease and manufacturer/factory) auction volume lessens, total volume is expected to increase during the second half,” Silver explained.

“Next year, we expect the negative impact from FL-MF on total auction volume to turn into a positive, which when combined with continued dealer consignment growth, will result in a noticeable overall gain,” he added.

Regional Volume Breakdown

By region, the Southeast (up 2.1 percent) showed the greatest increase in auction volume through June, with the Southwest in second (up 0.8 percent). Both the Far West and Northeast were up 0.1 in auction volume, and the North Central region dropped 4.8 percent.