Could the Industry Be Heading Toward Small-Car Overproduction?
Since the recession of 2008 — when many automakers were left with too many vehicles and not enough buyers — the industry remains wary of overproduction.
And according to Black Book analysts, the industry may be heading toward an “over-production issue with smaller cars.”
The company contends that though more manufacturers are producing a higher volume of these cars, “overall consumer demand has not matched this production.”
Managing editor Ricky Beggs commented on the trend, saying, “Even though the smaller cars are built with higher quality and more features than in years past, there are more options for the consumer today.
“While gas prices have come down from their late-summer highs, we didn’t see the rush toward small cars because people have become immune to higher gas prices and there is better fuel economy in the larger vehicles,” he added.
Also, Black Book contends that recent government legislation may contribute to future overproduction issues.
“Manufacturers have introduced more small cars to meet the demands of rising CAFE standards,” its analysis said. “As an example, whereas there used to be four to five manufacturers for the category, today there are closer to 10 manufacturers, and category demand so far has not matched this production."
The company also provided a recent similar situation to illustrate its point:
“As a comparison, the Chevrolet Suburban had a 12-month retention value of 80 percent in the late 1990s. When the Ford Expedition was launched, with an additional 200,000 units flooding the category, the Suburban's retention level fell into the mid-60-percent range,” officials said.
Black Book also offered the following data to back up its predictions.
First, the company noted that smaller-car prices have seen larger price drops than other car segments.
For example, entry-level car prices on the wholesale market have dropped 4.1 percent since August 24, compared with a 3.6-percent price drop for all car segments combined.
Cars in this category include the Chevrolet Aveo, Honda Fit, Nissan Versa and Toyota Yaris, officials added.
And even with gas prices high, compact car prices, such as the Honda Civic and Chevrolet Cobalt, have also dropped more than overall car segments, with values in this category declining 4.9 percent since August 24, according to Black Book.
Here is some perspective: the truck segments have only declined just 2.2 percent during the same time.