Despite Fallout from Sandy, October Sees New-Vehicle Sales Gains
Though the full impact of Hurricane Sandy on both the new- and used-vehicle markets has not been fully realized, new-vehicle sales continue to rise, according to the American International Automobile Dealers Association.
AIADA released October sales figures that showed the seasonally adjusted annual rate (domestics and imports combined) at 14.29 million units, an improvement over 13.34 million units one year ago, according to AutoData Corp. data.
And even as Hurricane Sandy “stifled” end-of-month sales from Virginia to Rhode Island, sales for all brands, unadjusted for business days, were up 6.9 percent from October 2011 and 13.8 percent year over year, AIADA shared.
“Hurricane Sandy may have put a crimp in sales, but consumer confidence and personal income are both climbing,” said AIADA president Cody Lusk. “That’s good news for auto dealers and the communities they support.”
As for new cars as a whole, Lacy Plache, chief economist at Edmunds.com, gave a similar outlook, noting, “New-car sales have hit post-recession highs so far this year and October brought more of the same, despite failing to meet forecasts due to the impact on sales from Hurricane Sandy.”
In fact, Plache explained that Hurricane Sandy could even prove to “support” auto sales in the fourth quarter.
How?
Though October sales were likely down around 3 percent, according to Edmunds.com, the majority of these sales should be made up in November, Plache said.
Moreover, November and December sales could receive a boost from buyers returning to the market to replace vehicles that were destroyed or damaged by the storm.
“Hurricane Katrina, for example, affected a smaller, much less populated area and is estimated to have damaged about a half-million vehicles,” Plache said.
“Given the differences in geographic and population impacts between the two storms, some analysts are already suggesting that Sandy's impact could be higher; but even damage to 100,000 vehicles would boost auto sales 3 to 4 percent for the quarter,” she further explained.
Highlighting October's sales numbers in more detail, for international name brands, Subaru (up 30.1 percent), Toyota (up 16.8 percent), and Volkswagen (up 22.4 percent) enjoyed the biggest sales gains year-over-year.
That said, one brand, whose biggest customer base is found in the Northeast, was privy to a much different story: Nissan saw sales fall 6 percent from October 2011.
“In response to the storm, Nissan and Infiniti will both offer employee discounts and financing to eligible residents in FEMA disaster areas,” AIADA officials said.
As for incentives, they were down 2.9 percent from September industry-wide. They fell 5.6 percent from October 2011. Lastly, AIADA broke the sales up by region.
In October, international brands accounted for 606,029 units sold, down from 666,301 in September, officials shared.
Asian nameplates occupied 44.4 percent of the U.S. auto market, down from 46.1 percent in September, and European nameplates rose from a 10-percent share in September to an 11-percent share in October.
Domestic brands finished the month with a 44.5 percent share of the market, up half a percentage point from September.
Expectations for Future Purchases
Looking forward, Plache thinks that consumer spending on new cars could remain high through the end of the year.
“While concerns about economic weakness in Europe and China and fears of the impact of the impending fiscal cliff at home have slowed business investment and hiring in recent months, recession-weary consumers have plunged ahead with their wallets open,” Plache said.
Moreover, the Edmunds.com exec noted that high stock prices and firming home values have improved consumer confidence and willingness to spend.
“In addition, personal income has shown renewed growth recently and consumer expectations about the future have improved, suggesting more spending to come,” she added.
New-car sales are also expected to benefit this quarter from increased lease terminations, showing year-over-year growth for the first time since early 2010, Edmunds.com reported.
The aging fleet of vehicles on the road also may continue to push consumers back into the market for a new ride.
Plache also shared that new “enticing” products (for example, the 2013 Ram 1500, the 2013 Nissan Altima, and the 2013 Honda Accord) will attract shoppers, and “creative” incentives will help, as well.
“Meanwhile, all of the plus factors for auto sales that have been in place this year should continue to support sales growth through the end of the year: aging vehicles, increased credit availability, pent-up demand,” Plache concluded.