DETROIT -

The mid-year Automotive Franchise Activity Report from Urban Science showed that as the number of franchised dealerships has fallen slightly this year, average new-vehicle sales per dealership are up. But the increases are not expected to continue.

Auto Remarketing asked John Frith, vice president at Urban Science, why he thinks this year’s throughput levels — expected to reach 877 units in 2013  —  may be close to “topping out.”

With 15.6 million sales predicted for 2013 by LMC Automotive and throughput set to break records for the fourth year in a row, Urban Science predicts that increases may slow in the future.

Frith attributed this prediction to both franchise growth trends and a cyclical market.

“The overall sales in the country kind of follow a cycle, and we have had four ‘up’ years in a row. I think it will go up a bit more, but then I think it will probably top out. I don’t see the throughput levels rising 100 units or more after 2013 as it has in the past few years,” Frith said.

And as average sales per dealership rise, there has been a slight decline in the number of franchised dealerships in the U.S. since last year. As of the beginning of July, Urban Science data shows there were 17,780 franchised dealerships in the country, representing a 0.4-percent decrease from last January’s total of 17,851 — perhaps a result of manufacturers trying to stabilize their networks.

Frith predicts that beyond this year, franchise counts should stay “relatively stable” and perhaps see some slight growth.

This stability comes on the heels of massive downturns in dealership numbers over the past five years as Chrysler and General Motors declared bankruptcy, as did Suzuki, and brands like Mercury exited the market.

“As populations shift and markets grow, and we come out of the horrible time we had in 2008 and 2009, there will be some additional dealerships open as the OEMs try and make sure they have market coverage. So I expect we will see some slight increase there,” Frith said.

He also noted that another dropped franchise or a new brand hitting the market would change this prediction dramatically, but that these events are not on “anyone’s radar” currently.

For more data from the mid-year Automotive Franchise Activity Report from Urban Science, see the Auto Remarketing story here.

Sarah Rubenoff can be reached at srubenoff@autoremarketing.com. Continue the conversation with Auto Remarketing on both LinkedIn and Twitter.